Economic assessment of prospective shale gas play in Pakistan using discounted cashflow model

Abstract

Pakistan has not been yet able to exploit its huge shale resources pertaining to uncertainness of potential reserves, appropriate technology, and commercial extraction. The exploitation of these shale resources can significantly fulfill the evergrowing energy need of Pakistan. This study assesses the economic feasibility of emerging shale gas plays in Pakistan by employing a reservoir analog approach to the US shale formations that are closely related to the shale formations in Pakistan. The aim is to eliminate the associated economic uncertainties of the future shale gas projects of Pakistan and to provide guidance for the early assessment of emerging shale gas plays with no production history or previously drilled wells. Recommendations for the economically viability of shale gas plays in Pakistan have also been prepared from this study. Economic model was developed based on discounted cash flow method. Sensitivity analysis of different financial (royalty rates and corporate tax rate) and well construction and stimulation parameters (drilling, completion, hydraulic fracturing, well-testing, and well tie-in costs) were performed to evaluate their effect on the net present value (NPV). Results showed that production from Pakistan shale gas resource using existing technology is economically feasible with the break-even gas price of $11.35/Mscf if operators received financial incentives on royalty and taxes from government. With prevailing tax regime, the hydrocarbon extraction from the proposed field is financially expensive and risky with the gas prices ranges between $18.77/Mscf and $53/Mscf for different financial scenarios. It was found that hydrocarbon extraction from the proposed shale gas field is economically viable with the combination of favorable financial incentives and technological advancements.