Economic Costs and Benefits of EMU Membership from the Perspective of a Non-member

Gyoerk, Emilia

doi:10.1007/s11079-017-9466-8

Cited by 15 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Several short policy-makers implications have to be made based on our research findings. First, as several scholars indicate non-member countries of EMU have to carefully prepared if they intend to adopt euro, taking into account all costs and benefits of membership in monetary union (Mazier & Petit, 2013;Gyoerk, 2017;Pechova, 2012). Second, nowadays euro-zone perspective is less attractive then before recent crisis, so structural refroms has to be done to avoid recent troubles (Afonso et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Public debt’s predictors in EU: evidence from members and non-members of European Monetary Union

Pjanić

Milenković

Andrašić

et al. 2020

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

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The global economic crisis destabilised the public debt of many countries. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the predictors of public debt in European Union countries divided into nonmember countries and members of the European Monetary Union in the period from 2001 to 2018. The aim is to discover their relationship with public debt and make recommendations for economic policy-makers. The empirical analysis was based on comparative research design, quantitative methodology and secondary data collection. It included 13 variables, with public debt being the dependent variable and the selected 12 economic indicators were treated as predictors. The analysis was based on a procedure for linear mixed models in the IBM SPSS. The basic finding was that only unemployment was statistically significant predictor of public debt in both groups of countries. Other predictors differed, and there were statistically significant differences in the magnitude of their impacts. Obtained results indicate that unemployment is one of the most important problems of all European Union countries. In addition, a major challenge for monetary and fiscal policy-makers will be profiling adequate tax, credit, and interest rate policies to reduce debt and accelerate economic growth.

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Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Public debt’s predictors in EU: evidence from members and non-members of European Monetary Union

Pjanić

Milenković

Andrašić

et al. 2020

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

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show abstract

“…Originally proposed by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), in essence SCM is based on the idea that a combination of unaffected observable unitsfor instance, data from countries where policy changes do not take placewill provide a more appropriate comparison than any single unaffected unit by itself. Abadie (2019) provides more detail on SCM; one recent application of this approach is Gyoerk (2017), who examines whether Sweden would have benefited from membership of the single European currency. While there are parallels between SCM and linear regression analysis, there are also some important differences, as set out and examined by Doudchenko and Imbens (2017).…”

Section: Synthetic Control Methods (Scm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Have Macron’s Recent Labour Reforms Been as Impactful as Past German Reforms?

Ellis¹

2020

AEF

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Structural reforms can sometimes take many years for the effects to be visible in economic data: but one area where impacts can manifest more swiftly is the labour market. In particular, Germany’s experience in the mid-2000s is often cited as a clear example of how macroeconomic dynamics can shift relatively swiftly if the reforms are effective. More recently, France has seen a number of structural reforms, driven by President Macron’s desire to revitalize the French economy after his 2016 election. This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of recent French labour market reforms, comparing and contrasting this impact against the German experience in the 2000s. If idiosyncratic policy changes were a significant driver of labour market dynamics, then empirical outcomes should be different for those countries experiencing policy changes, relative to their peers. Using a variety of different statistical techniques, we find that – while there is clear evidence of the German labour market outperforming its peers when the Hartz reforms were enacted – there is no sign of the French labour market doing so under Macron’s presidency.

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“…Covariates for the mentioned macroeconomic indicators were selected according to theoretical assumptions. The determinants of growth and aggregate demand components have been extensively researched in the literature, so this paper uses variables such as trade openness, population growth, share of investment in GDP, share of educated inhabitants as an approximator of human capital (more detailed explanation can be found at: Henreksen, Torstensson and Torstensson, 1997;Gyoerk, 2017). To determine the income and savings rate, additional variables of unemployment rate, GDP growth, dependency ratio were selected (see: Nicolescu-Aron and Mihăescu, 2012; Rocher and Stierle, 2015; Furceri and Ostry, 2019).…”

Section: Data and Samplementioning

confidence: 99%

Untitled

2022

pse

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The paper evaluates the Croatia's seven-year membership in the European Union based on selected macroeconomic indicators by using a methodological approach, counterfactual analysis, and a synthetic control method. The results showed that the effect of the accession stimulated the economic growth and components of aggregate demand, income, savings and sectoral productivity. Also, strong disturbances with the onset of the crisis in 2009 were detected, the effects of which ultimately had a negative consequence in terms of more successful economic integration. Accession to the EU halted the decline in macroeconomic indicators and began a mild, but still insufficient recovery. The research confirms a strong trend of export development after 2013, a strong turn and increase in savings, a strong and significant decline in the value added of the agriculture sector as well as not recovered consumption. Also, the positive effect in the reduction of government expenditures is expressed.

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Economic Costs and Benefits of EMU Membership from the Perspective of a Non-member

Cited by 15 publications

References 29 publications

Public debt’s predictors in EU: evidence from members and non-members of European Monetary Union

Public debt’s predictors in EU: evidence from members and non-members of European Monetary Union

Have Macron’s Recent Labour Reforms Been as Impactful as Past German Reforms?

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