Economic Determinants of Birth Rate in Romania. A Spatial Analysis

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to determine the factors influencing the birth rate in Romania, by incorporating explicitly the spatial factor in the proposed models. The study is justified by the dramatic fall of the birth rate over the past three decades. With a negative natural population growth and an increasing number of emigrants, the population will become older and there will be a few million less in the next decades. To achieve the objective, various spatial modelling methods were used, such as Spatial AutoRegressive Model (SAR), Spatial Error Model (SEM), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and a spatial panel data model. The data granularity is at the county level for the year 2020. Results show that GDP per capita and the amount of financial support received by families for raising a child have a significant effect on the birth rate. Using a spatial approach for modelling the birth rate, we reveal demographic problems that may exist in certain areas and identify the regions that would require a policy to stimulate birth rates.