Economic Determinants of Invasion and Discovery of Nonindigenous Insects

Hlásny, Vladimír; Livingston, Michael

doi:10.1017/s1074070800027966

Cited by 18 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…For instance, in a global analysis across taxa, Westphal et al (2008) concluded that a country's level of international trade (i.e., its amount of merchandise imports) is the best predictor of the number of alien invasive species found within its borders. Similarly, Hlasny and Livingston (2008) suggested that agricultural import levels are the best predictor of the number of introduced insect species in the US. However, to implement finer-scale prediction of potential entries of invasive organisms requires more detailed knowledge about the quantity, origins, and destinations of various types of imports (Hulme 2009;Hulme et al 2008;Kenis et al 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential establishment of alien-invasive forest insect species in the United States: where and how many?

et al. 2010

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International trade is widely acknowledged as a conduit for movement of invasive species, but few studies have directly quantified the invasion risk confronting individual locations of interest. This study presents estimates of the likelihood of successful entry for alien forest insect species at more than 3,000 urban areas in the contiguous United States (US). To develop these location-specific estimates, we first utilized historical merchandise imports and insect incursions data to estimate an annual US rate of alien insect species establishment. Next, we used historical pest interception data to calculate the proportion of all insects arriving at US ports of entry that are associated with forest hosts. We then combined these results to estimate a nationwide establishment rate specifically for alien forest insects. Finally, we employed international and domestic commodity flow networks to allocate this nationwide rate to individual US urban areas. For 2010, we estimated the nationwide rate as 1.89 new alien forest insect species per year. While the establishment rates observed at most urban areas were low (\0.005 new species/year), for a few select areas the rates predict new alien forest insect species establishments every 5-15 years. This national-scale assessment provides a realistic depiction of humanassisted establishment potential in the US as well as functional inputs for quantitative models of invasion. Overall, these analyses support broad-scale biosecurity and management strategies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential establishment of alien-invasive forest insect species in the United States: where and how many?

et al. 2010

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“…To control for the arrival of infested goods in the United States, we use agricultural imports, merchandise imports and all imports, as alternative measures. We expect agricultural imports to be an important determinant of species introductions, because of the a priori high rate of infestation and nonsterile conditions of agricultural shipments, and because of evidence in prior literature (Work et al 2005, Hlasny andLivingston 2008). Merchandise imports and imports at large are thought to contribute less to species introductions, because they include commodities that are less likely to be infested.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is a great deal of circumstantial evidence suggesting a causal relationship between humanrelated activities and introductions of invasive organisms (Kim andWheeler 1991, NRC 2002). The existing literature blames in particular the trade in animals and plants, raw materials, and horticultural products, and other merchandise (Hlasny and Livingston 2008, and references therein). Although quarantine and inspection systems attempt to reduce biological risks from imports, improper movement of commodities susceptible to infestation remains a signiÞcant problem.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…These studies were limited to short time-series of data or small sets of explanatory variables and to methods that implicitly made species arrivals and identiÞcations simultaneous, and synonymous, with each other. In another branch of empirical statistical literature, Drake and Lodge (2004), Costello et al (2007a,b), and Hlasny and Livingston (2008) allowed for a limited delay between species introductions and their discoveries, and they found this delay to be signiÞcant. Quarantine efforts were shown to play a role at preventing introductions (Hlasny 2008).…”

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confidence: 99%

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The Stock of Invasive Insect Species and Its Economic Determinants

Hlásny

2011

jnl. econ. entom.

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Invasions of nonindigenous organisms have long been linked to trade, but the contribution of individual trade pathways remains poorly understood, because species are not observed immediately upon arrival and the number of species arriving annually is unknown. Species interception records may count both new arrivals and species long introduced. Furthermore, the stock of invasive insect species already present is unknown. In this study, a state-space model is used to infer the stock of detected as well as undetected invasive insect species established in the United States. A system of equations is estimated jointly to distinguish the patterns of introduction, identification, and eradication. Introductions of invasive species are modeled as dependent on the volume of trade and arrival of people. Identifications depend on the public efforts at invasive species research, as well as on the established stock of invasive species that remain undetected. Eradications of both detected and undetected invasive species depend on containment and quarantine efforts, as well as on the stock of all established invasive species. These patterns are estimated by fitting the predicted number of invasive species detections to the observed record in the North American Non-Indigenous Arthropod Database. The results indicate that agricultural imports are the most important pathway of introduction, followed by immigration of people. Expenditures by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Agricultural Research Service are found to explain the species identification record well. Between three and 38 invasive insect species are estimated to be established in the United States undetected.

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“…Indeed, it has been demonstrated that a country's level of international imports (Levine and D'Antonio 2003;Westphal et al 2008)-either in total or specifically within the agricultural sector (Hlasny and Livingston 2008)-is a reasonable predictor of the number of alien species that can be expected to be introduced. However, while gross trade volumes may serve as a good proxy for estimating the anticipated number of new invasions in a region of interest, determining the finer-scale geographic distribution of these new entries requires detailed knowledge on the movement of specific commodities (i.e., potential carriers of invasive species) through the region's network of freight shipment corridors (Hulme et al 2008;Hulme 2009;Kenis et al 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade-associated pathways of alien forest insect entries in Canada

et al. 2011

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Long-distance introductions of new invasive species have often been driven by socioeconomic factors, such that traditional ''biological'' invasion models may not be capable of estimating spread fully and reliably. In this study we present a new methodology to characterize and predict pathways of humanassisted entries of alien forest insects. We have developed a stochastic quantitative model of how these species may be moved with commodity flow through a network of international marine ports and major transportation corridors in Canada. The study makes use of a Canadian roadside survey database and data on Canadian marine imports, complemented with geo-referenced information on ports of entry, populated places and empirical observations of historical spread rates for invasive pests. The model is formulated as a probabilistic pathway matrix, and allows for quantitative characterization of likelihoods and vectors of new pest introductions from already or likelyto-be infested locations. We applied the pathway model to estimate the rates of human-assisted entry of alien forest insect species across Canada as well as cross-border transport to locations in the US. Results suggest a relatively low nationwide entry rate for Canada when compared to the US (0.338 new forest insect species per year vs. 1.89). Among Canadian urban areas, Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver appear to have the highest alien forest insect entry potential, exhibiting species entry rates that are comparable with estimated rates at mid-size US urban metropolises.

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Economic Determinants of Invasion and Discovery of Nonindigenous Insects

Cited by 18 publications

References 33 publications

Potential establishment of alien-invasive forest insect species in the United States: where and how many?

Potential establishment of alien-invasive forest insect species in the United States: where and how many?

The Stock of Invasive Insect Species and Its Economic Determinants

Trade-associated pathways of alien forest insect entries in Canada

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