Economic Expectations, Optimistic Bias, and Television Viewing During Economic Recession

Hetsroni, Amir; Sheaffer, Zachary; Zion, Uri Ben; Rosenboim, Mosi

doi:10.1177/0093650212442373

Cited by 16 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Therefore this effect deserves replication, using sufficient sample and a fully counterbalanced design. We note however that this pattern accords well with findings in other areas of research that have shown negative economic news to produce stronger responses in various indicators of economic activity, compared to positive [6,9,10,13,14,16,19,29,31,33–35]. …”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making

2017

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This study addresses the self-fulfilling prophecy effect, in the domain of economic decision-making. We present experimental data in support of the hypothesis that speculative forecasts of economic change can impact individuals’ economic decision behavior, prior to any realized changes. In a within-subjects experiment, participants (N = 40) played 180 trials in a Balloon Analogue Risk Talk (BART) in which they could make actual profit. Simple messages about possible (positive and negative) changes in outcome probabilities of future trials had significant effects on measures of risk taking (number of inflations) and actual profits in the game. These effects were enduring, even though no systematic changes in actual outcome probabilities took place following any of the messages. Risk taking also found to be reflected in reaction times revealing increasing reaction times with riskier decisions. Positive and negative economic forecasts affected reaction times slopes differently, with negative forecasts resulting in increased reaction time slopes as a function of risk. These findings suggest that forecasted positive or negative economic change can bias people’s mental model of the economy and reduce or stimulate risk taking. Possible implications for media-fulfilling prophecies in the domain of the economy are considered.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making

2017

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“…The focus on negativity seems to be limited to the coverage of macro-economic news and does not apply to financial news (Hetsroni et al 2014). Studies on the reporting about financial markets have found overtly positive coverage (e.g.…”

Section: Fundingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Economic coverage can affect individual citizens' economic perceptions (Boomgaarden et al 2011;Goidel et al 2010;Hetsroni et al 2014) as well as consumer confidence on the aggregate level (Hester and Gibson 2003;Hollanders and Vliegenthart 2011;Soroka 2006). This places a large responsibility on economic journalists and business reporters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic News Through the Magnifying Glass

2015

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One of the normative functions of economic news is surveillance, making monitorial citizens aware of significant economic developments. In this light, it is important to look at the way economic news covers periods of recession and economic boom. Previous studies have focused on how the media cover monthly developments of the economy rather than how coverage varies over the course of the economic cycle. Based on parallels between self-reinforcing news waves or media hypes, on the one hand, and coverage of recession and economic boom, on the other, we argue that the media amplify periods of prolonged economic growth or contraction by making the economy more visible and reporting with an overly positive or negative tone. A time-series analysis of the relation between economic developments and the automatically coded tone and visibility of economic news in Danish newspapers (1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012) shows that the media functioned as a magnifying glass. During recession, the economy became more negative and visible than economic developments would predict. During economic boom, economic news became more positive, but not more visible. The media adjusted the tone downwards before the economy entered recession. These results are assessed in light of the surveillance function.

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“…From a cultivation standpoint, however, this could be "good news". Negative economic messages in non-news programming (and let us not forget that negative was the leading category in references to economy in this programming) are better internalized than positive information (Ito, Larsen, Smith, and Cacioppo, 1998) and may be conducive to pessimistic financial expectations (Hetsroni et al, 2012). In the short term, such expectations may bring about an increase in the cost of finanBrought to you by | HEC Bibliotheque Maryriam ET J. Authenticated Download Date | 6/12/15 11:32 PM cial hedging tools and insurance premiums (Puri and Robinson, 2007); in the long term, they are liable to trigger a negative economic chain reaction (Jacobides and Winter, 2010) and escalate recessionary cycles (Navarro, Bromiley, and Sottile, 2010).…”

Section: Similarities In Global News Local News and Entertainment Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the tone of televised economic messages during economic recovery: Positive and negative, global and local

Hetsroni¹,

Sheaffer²

2013

Communications - The European Journal of Communication Research

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Objective: To map the tone of local and global economic information transmitted in news and non-news TV programming during economic recovery, and to resolve a conflict in the literature between research where a negative trend in economic news was identified and studies which concluded that economic news reflects actual economic circumstances.Method: A content analysis of 140 hours of prime-time programming (news and non-news) aired by commercial networks and public broadcasting in Israel during one month.

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Economic Expectations, Optimistic Bias, and Television Viewing During Economic Recession

Cited by 16 publications

References 57 publications

Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making

Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making

Economic News Through the Magnifying Glass

Assessing the tone of televised economic messages during economic recovery: Positive and negative, global and local

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