Economic Feasibility of Converting from a Bare Ground System with Seepage Irrigation to Plasticulture for Cabbage Production: Where is the Risk?

Abstract

<jats:p>Weather has a major influence on cabbage (<jats:italic>Brassica oleracea</jats:italic> var. <jats:italic>capitata</jats:italic> L.) production. Variation in yield between years and cropping seasons is common in North America. Cabbage in Florida has historically been cultivated on bare ground with seepage irrigation. The objectives of this study were to compare yield and profit of a bare ground cabbage production system used in Florida with an alternative plasticulture system. Data from various cabbage trials were combined by production system and used to create regression equations that predicted yield based on air temperature and solar radiation that were significantly correlated with yield. The regression equations were then simulated with correlated stochastic air temperature and solar radiation to estimate the yield distributions for both systems. Cabbage price ($/Mg fresh) was stochastically simulated (correlated to yield) to be used in the profit model. The profit model was created by using the product of yield and the price per unit yield minus fixed and variable costs associated with production and marketing. Simulated profit for bare ground and plasticulture was used to estimate their respective distributions to provide a tool for making better management decisions in the presence of risky weather conditions. The plasticulture system was estimated to have a 36% higher cost but a 57% higher profit than the bare ground system. This is, in large part, because the simulated mean yield for the bare ground system was 29.7 Mg·ha<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> compared with 54.4 Mg·ha<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> for plasticulture. These findings confirmed that plasticulture is an economically viable best management practice for cabbage production in Northeast Florida.</jats:p>

Watermelon Planting Decisions with Multiple Risks: A Simulation Analysis

“…The method estimates the likelihood of a range of outcomes occurring as the result of a decision or scenario (Bizimana and Richardson, 2019;Richardson et al, 2000Richardson et al, , 2007. Simulation analysis is often used for economic evaluation of agricultural practices with considerable risk and uncertainty (Barrett et al, 2018;Evans et al, 2014;Rodriguez et al, 2012).…”