Economic feasibility of sugar and ethanol production in Brazil under alternative future prices outlook

Rezende, Marcelo Lacerda; Richardson, James W.

doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2015.05.004

Cited by 26 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…The study also considered that since rice is an essential crop, farmers may sell their produce during harvesting or later when the price is higher. This study employs a Monte Carlo simulation model, which was also applied by Ribera et al, Richardson et al, Rezende and Richardson, and Mwinuka et al, [29][30][31][32][33] to evaluate the economic performance of each alternative rice farming system. The contribution of the present study to the body of knowledge in Tanzania is the application of a Monte Carlo simulation approach, which incorporates stochastic/random variables like prices and yields that farmers cannot control with certainty.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Economic Comparison between Alternative Rice Farming Systems in Tanzania Using a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

et al. 2020

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Tanzania is the second-largest producer of rice (Oryza sativa) in Eastern, Central, and Southern Africa after Madagascar. Unfortunately, the sector has been performing poorly due to many constraints, including poor agricultural practices and climate variability. In addressing the challenge, the government is making substantial investments to speed the agriculture transformation into a more modernized, commercial, and highly productive and profitable sector. Our objective was to apply a Monte Carlo simulation approach to assess the economic feasibility of alternative rice farming systems operating in Tanzania while considering risk analysis for decision-makers with different risk preferences to make better management decisions. The rice farming systems in this study comprise rice farms using traditional practices and those using some or all of the recommended system of rice intensification (SRI) practices. The overall results show 2% and zero probability of net cash income (NCI) being negative for partial and full SRI adopters, respectively. Meanwhile, farmers using local and improved seeds have 66% and 60% probability of NCI being negative, correspondingly. Rice farms which applied fertilizers in addition to improved seeds have a 21% probability of negative returns. Additionally, net income for rice farms using local seeds was slightly worthwhile when the transaction made during the harvesting period compared to farms applied improved varieties due to a relatively high price for local seeds. These results help to inform policymakers and agencies promoting food security and eradication of poverty on the benefits of encouraging improved rice farming practices in the country. Despite climate variability, in Tanzania, it is still possible for rice farmers to increase food production and income through the application of improved technologies, particularly SRI management practices, which have shown a promising future.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Economic Comparison between Alternative Rice Farming Systems in Tanzania Using a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

et al. 2020

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“…The economic analysis was carried out using the DCF, which is the most traditional and robust method for analysing investments, including the agricultural context (Rezende and Richardson, 2015;Faleiros et al, 2018, Montoro et al, 2019. Equation shows the DCF calculation:…”

Section: Economic Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The Economic Value of Sustainability of the Integrated Crop-Livestock System in Tropical Regions

Similli

Mendonça

Gameiro

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of improve economic value of integrated crop-livestock systems in comparison to conventional systems specialized in monoculture. Empirical studies have demonstrated the environmental benefits of integrated crop-livestock systems, however the potential for creating economic value these systems are controversial, especially in emerging countries, where the necessity to expand the food supply needs be associated with better land use. This research evaluated six models of integrated systems and two conventional systems (corn grain production and pasture beef cattle production) in the south-eastern region of Brazil for two years. The models were conducted in an experiment to replicate the main management possibilities in the integrated systems. We show for the first time the economic impact analysis combined the risk optimization and discounted cash flow techniques based on Monte Carlo simulation, considering the price and productivity uncertainties of each system. Results indicated that, for the indicators of added value and return on investment, integrated crop-livestock systems had an economic advantage when compared to conventional systems. It was also found that integrated crop-livestock systems needed a smaller operational area for the economic break-even point to be reached.

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“…Em virtude disso, no decorrer da última década, as agroindústrias brasileiras produtoras de açúcar e etanol realizaram financiamento da dívida com o objetivo de atender ao aumento esperado da demanda doméstica e internacional, especialmente de etanol, o que não se concretizou plenamente. Ademais, houve um arrefecimento na expansão da demanda do etanol devido à queda de preços dos combustíveis fósseis e à redução dos incentivos das políticas governamentais (REZENDE; RICHARDSON, 2015;OCDE-FAO, 2017).…”

Section: O Etanol Da Cana-de-açúcar: Aspectos Gerais Do Setorunclassified

Investimentos no setor sucroenergético: análise do perfil das operações automáticas de financiamento contratadas com o sistema BNDES no período de 2000 a 2015

Oliveira

2017

ReA UFSM

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RESUMOAs idiossincrasias do setor sucroenergético têm sido debatidas e estudadas exaustivamente tanto na academia quanto nos encontros técnicos, indicando desafios e oportunidades que se traduzem em uma perspectiva de difícil visualização. Diante disso, o presente estudo tem como objetivo analisar o perfil das operações automáticas de financiamento contratadas pelo sistema do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) no período de 2000 a 2015. Caracterizado como estudo exploratório de abordagem quantitativa, os dados foram recebidos diretamente do BNDES via Lei de Acesso à Informação (LAI). Foram analisadas 60.408 operações automáticas, cujo montante de investimentos é de R$ 24.714.610.364. O ano de 2010 apresentou o maior valor de investimento, representando 13,93% do volume total de investimentos no período, com 6.086 operações. Já o ano de 2009 teve maior número de operações no período -8.249. Além disso, embora a mediana do prazo de carência tenha sido de dez anos, o prazo de carência de doze anos registrou 25.996 operações, sobressaindo-se aos demais. Os maiores desembolsos do Banco foram para o setor de atividade de "Fabricação de Açúcar Bruto", seguido de perto por investimentos em "CTV Cana-de-Açúcar". Registram-se, ainda novas expectativas de desentraves para o setor sucroenergético brasileiro.Palavras-chave: Setor sucroenergético. Investimentos BNDES. Açúcar. Álcool. Bioenergia.

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Economic feasibility of sugar and ethanol production in Brazil under alternative future prices outlook

Cited by 26 publications

References 5 publications

An Economic Comparison between Alternative Rice Farming Systems in Tanzania Using a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

An Economic Comparison between Alternative Rice Farming Systems in Tanzania Using a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

The Economic Value of Sustainability of the Integrated Crop-Livestock System in Tropical Regions

Investimentos no setor sucroenergético: análise do perfil das operações automáticas de financiamento contratadas com o sistema BNDES no período de 2000 a 2015

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