Economic Gains of Transitioning Towards Reduced-Risk Products: Evidence from Mexico

Abstract

Unhealthy behaviors such as poor diet and tobacco use contribute to disease burden and escalating healthcare costs. This paper evaluates potential savings from people adopting reduced risk behaviors in Mexico. Using the Preventable Risk Integrated Model, we compare actual consumption in 2016 (baseline) to optimal intake following WHO guidelines (counterfactual) for salt, fiber, fruit/vegetables, and fat to estimate reductions in coronary, cerebrovascular, cancer, diabetes and hypertensive diseases. We also model 50% of smokers switching to e-cigarettes/heated tobacco with 65–97% lower disease risk. Results indicate over 650,000 preventable cases annually, mostly from diet changes (fruits/vegetables, fat, salt). Healthcare cost savings reach $3.4 billion USD; $2.8 billion from nutrition and $0.3 billion from smoking substitution. Fruit/vegetable intake and reduced fat confer over $1 billion savings each. Salt and fiber also contribute significantly. Adding smoking transitions provides further savings. Shifting Mexicans towards healthier diets and alternative nicotine products could substantially lower disease burden and healthcare costs. These findings underscore the economic imperative of promoting reduced-risk behaviors through public health policies.

From Risk to Reward: Japan's Potential for Health and Economic Improvements

“…However, an exception is made for the counterfactual scenario concerning tobacco consumption. Here, we follow the approach introduced by Espinosa Herrera (2024) [32]. This study simulates a counterfactual scenario for tobacco products utilizing the PRIME model, where users switch to potentially less harmful tobacco alternatives instead of quitting.…”

“…This lower risk reduction bound of 30% largely impacts potential savings from reduced smoking. If we implemented a higher risk reduction level, as it was done by Moscone (2023), Espinosa Herrera (2024) and Koch (2024) among others, savings would be signi cantly higher [32,[39][40]. We would then expect potential health and economic savings from smokers switching to HTPs to be three times higher.…”