Economic impacts of debottlenecking congestion in the Chinese coal supply chain

Rioux, Bertrand; Galkin, Philipp; Murphy, Frederic H.; Pierru, Axel

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.10.013

Cited by 26 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Before the peak time, long‐distance coal transport faces constraints, so there is still at least 3,300 km of newly built railways with 1,000 Mt/year transport capacity in total dedicated to coal transport by 2020. For example, the Menghua line is under construction; however, it is believed to have negative rates of return as a result of overbuilding even without the post‐peak consideration (Rioux, Galkin, Murphy, & Pierru, 2016). If the HREP roadmap can be implemented well, more coal‐dedicated lines would get negative rates of return.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transforming the coal and steel nexus for China's eco‐civilization: Interplay between rail and energy infrastructure

Zhang

Kennedy

Wang

et al. 2020

J of Industrial Ecology

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China's 2050 high renewable energy penetration (HREP) scenario is a roadmap for deep decarbonization. This promising strategy, deploying wind and solar energy, will also reshape other infrastructure sectors. With decarbonization, not only can capital be diverted away from fossil fuel infrastructure toward green power generation, but considerable savings in future transport infrastructure sectors could be achieved because fossil fuels no longer need to be transported. Here, we conduct a material flow analysis with a focus on the central role of transportation to examine the interlinkages of coal and steel flows in China's infrastructure sectors between 1985, 2015, and 2050. We define the coal and steel nexus to be a system perspective that captures the interdependence and the critical linkages between these two resources. Our results show that the coal and steel nexus in China strengthened in the past three decades but could face transitional changes to 2050. The peak time of both coal and steel demand for China is expected to come before 2030. Consequentially, the volume of rail freight for the carriage of three main types of bulk cargo (coal, iron ores, and steel products) declines from ∼2,000 megatons (Mt) in 2015 to ∼700 Mt in 2050 under the HREP scenario with the two‐fold planned growth of railway infrastructure. However, investment in cleaner energy and steelmaking technologies will help China mainly rely on secondary steel resources to maintain domestic demand in 2050, further reducing the demand for coal and iron ores.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transforming the coal and steel nexus for China's eco‐civilization: Interplay between rail and energy infrastructure

Zhang

Kennedy

Wang

et al. 2020

J of Industrial Ecology

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“…Various studies focus on the coal sector in a particular country but do not consider the international dimension (see e.g. Paulus & Trüby, 2011;Rioux, Galkin, Murphy, & Pierru, 2015, with a focus on China). Two strands of literature on international coal markets exist, with one focusing on the analysis of market structure (cf.…”

Section: Cost Structure and Price Formationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prospects for steam coal exporters in the era of climate policies: a case study of Colombia

Oei

Mendelevitch

2018

Climate Policy

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Continued global action on climate change has major consequences for fossil fuel markets, especially for coal as the most carbon-intensive fuel. This article summarizes current market developments in the most important coal-producing and coal-consuming countries, resulting in a critical qualitative assessment of prospects for future coal exports. Colombia, as the world's fourth largest exporter, is strongly affected by these global trends, with more than 90% of its production being exported. Market analysis finds Colombia in a strong competitive position, owing to its low production costs and high coal quality. Nevertheless, market trends and enhanced climate policies suggest a gloomy outlook for future exports. Increasing competition on the Atlantic as well as Pacific market will keep coal prices low and continue pressure on mining companies. Increasing numbers of filed bankruptcies and lay-offs might be just the beginning of a carbon bubble devaluing fossil fuel investments and leaving them stranded. Colombia largely supplies European and Mediterranean consumers but also delivers some quantities to the US Gulf Coast, and to Central and South America. Future coal demand in most of these countries will continue to decline in the next decades. Newly constructed power plants in emerging economies (India, China) are unlikely to compensate for this downturn owing to increasing domestic supply and decreasing demand. Therefore, maintaining or even increasing mining volumes in Colombia should be re-evaluated, taking into account new economic realities as well as local externalities. Ignoring these risks could lead to additional stranded investments, aggravating the local resource curse and hampering sustainable economic development. Key policy insights. The climate policies of most of Colombia's traditional trade partners target steam coal as the more emission-intensive fossil fuel, with many countries implementing or considering a coal phase-out.. Coal exporters should re-evaluate their operations and new investments taking into account this new policy environment.. To prevent a race to the bottom among coal producers that would favour weak regulation, climate policy makers should also consider the local social and external costs of coal mining, including on health and the local environment.

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“…Equations (5) and (6) depict the algebraic relationship between t s ip and x ijp ensuring the start time of a water voyage is the end time of its preceding voyage, where t 0 v represents the initial time for the ship v to be operational. Equations (7) and (8) ensure that the settings of T wl ip , T wu ip , and t s ip satisfy the timewindow constraints of the relevant water voyage. Equation (9) requires that the value of z ipt is 0; when y ip � 0, namely, if the plan p does not implement the water voyage, the ship used in the plan shall not be in the unloading state of the water voyage at any time.…”

Section: Feasible Single-vessel Scheduling Planmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lastly, the railway has always been one of the essential modes of transportation in the southern Chinese coastal electric coal transportation system [7]. Since the Chinese railway is the dominant transportation mode, the establishment of the modern integrated transportation hubs has also enabled the land-and-water coordinated transport [8,9]. ree factors should be considered for the formulation of the electric coal transportation plan (referred to as the electric coal ship-scheduling problem, ECSSP).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Optimization Model for Tramp Ship Scheduling considering Time Window and Seaport Operation Delay Factors

Yang

Cao

Chen

et al. 2021

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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The quantity of electrical coal transported through the tramp shipping network is increasing due to the high demands. This trend has increased the scheduling difficulty combined with the underdevelopment of the private thermal power plant port. The high coal consumption and low port storage capacity requires the scheduling of the tramp ship to be on a strict time window to ensure the continuous operation of the thermal power plant. The low port unloading capacity often leads to the port congestion and delay of the unloading operation. This paper develops a mixed-integer-programming model for the optimization of the tramp ship scheduling to reduce the total operation cost, including the transportation cost and the unloading waiting cost, and the branch-and-price algorithm is adopted to solve this large-scale model. The model and algorithm are tested with historical operation data from the thermal power plant in the southern coastal areas of China. The optimized scheme significantly reduces the total operation cost by reducing the unloading waiting time and the number of active vessels in certain periods. The results also demonstrate the algorithm improvement in the aspects of the optimization quality and efficiency comparing with the heuristic solution.

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Economic impacts of debottlenecking congestion in the Chinese coal supply chain

Cited by 26 publications

References 9 publications

Transforming the coal and steel nexus for China's eco‐civilization: Interplay between rail and energy infrastructure

Transforming the coal and steel nexus for China's eco‐civilization: Interplay between rail and energy infrastructure

Prospects for steam coal exporters in the era of climate policies: a case study of Colombia

An Optimization Model for Tramp Ship Scheduling considering Time Window and Seaport Operation Delay Factors

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