Economic Persistence Despite Adverse Policies: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

We study the long-run persistence of relative economic well-being under adverse government policies using a combination of historical and contemporaneous data from Kyrgyzstan. After controlling for unobservable local effects, the economic well-being of Kyrgyz households in the 2010s correlates with the early 20th-century average wealth of their tribes. Inequality at the tribe level in the 2010s correlates with wealth inequality in the early 20th century. The likely channels of persistence are the inter-generational transmission of human capital, relative status, political power, and cultural traits. Transmission of material wealth, differences in natural endowments, or geographic sorting cannot explain persistence.

Persistence Despite Revolutions

“…2020). 5 Hanley and Treiman (2004) and Guirkinger et al (2020) document similar resurgence in post-Communist countries in Europe and Central Asia, respectively, as we do in China; transmission through educational attainment and high occupational status during the Communist period played important roles in explaining the resurgence, yet these channels of intergenerational persistence were all shut down during the Chinese revolutions.…”

The Intergenerational Transmission of College: Evidence from the 1973 Coup in Chile

“…Remarkably, all of the children we observe in the 2017 census reached college age decades after the country returned to democracy. This type of persistence of socioeconomic outcomes within families after critical junctures is similar to findings in other contexts (Guirkinger et al, 2021;Alesina et al, 2022). Looking at lower levels of education among children of affected parents, we find statistically significant but economically smaller downward kinks in the last four years of secondary education (ages 15-18).…”

The intergenerational transmission of higher education: Evidence from the 1973 coup in Chile

“…In terms of magnitude, we estimate that when parents were exposed 30% fewer college openings, their children have three percentage points lower probability of enrolling in college from a base of 58 percent. This type of persistence of socioeconomic outcomes within families after critical junctures is similar to findings in other contexts (Guirkinger et al, 2021). Remarkably, all individuals we study in the 2017 census reached college age decades after the country returned to democracy.…”