Economic policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure in Nigeria: a quantile regression analysis

Kumeka, Terver Theophilus; Falayi, Olabusuyi Rufus; Adedokun, Adeniyi Jimmy; Adeyemi, Francis O.

doi:10.1504/ijse.2023.129827

Cited by 2 publications

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“…Empirically, we expect the effect of financial development on the diverse categories of unemployment to be heterogeneous. It should be noted that our benchmarked estimated results used the FDI constructed by the IMF, whereas as a form of robustness, we further used World Bank data to construct a similar financial development index based on the PCA approach (see Kumeka et al, 2023;Adeniyi et al, 2021 for details).…”

Section: Results For the Quantile Via Moment Regressionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the purposes of robustness checks, we re-conducted all the preliminary tests -panel unit roots, cross-sectional dependence, and the empirical results -qunatile via method of moment and panel heterogeneous causality models by employing a different financial development index measure, which was constructed using World Bank data based on PCA approach. The PCA technique is extensively implemented by previous studies to construct various indices, see e.g., Kumeka et al (2023) and Adeniyi et al (2021). The results obtained with this index are presented in Tables 9, 10 and 11.…”

Section: Robustness and Additional Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Financial Development and Unemployment in MENA: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel Causality and Quantile via Moment Regression

2023

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The high rate of unemployment is one of the socio-economic problems bedevilling the MENA region. Theoretical and empirical arguments remain divided regarding financial development’s role in addressing unemployment. In light of this, this study investigates the effect of financial development on different components of unemployment (total (adult and youth) and gender (male and female)) in MENA. To capture financial development, we used the IMF composite financial development index. For robustness, we also computed an index of financial development from different measures of financial development made available by the World Bank. These measures of financial development include financial depth, financial efficiency, financial stability and financial access. By the panel quantile via the method of moment (Machado & Silva, 2019 ), our results show that financial development has a significant negative effect on unemployment across the quantiles, but the impact reduces as we move from the lower quantiles to the higher quantiles. Also, using heterogeneous panel causality (Dumitrescu and Hurlin ( 2012 )), our findings are further highlighted as follows: First, in most cases, there is a unidirectional causality between financial development and unemployment, especially total and male unemployment for youths and adults. The direction of causality runs from financial development to unemployment. Therefore, given that financial development lessens the rate of unemployment, our policy implication is that relevant authorities or policymakers need to implement sound financial development initiatives to reduce the levels of unemployment.

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Section: Results For the Quantile Via Moment Regressionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Robustness and Additional Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Financial Development and Unemployment in MENA: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel Causality and Quantile via Moment Regression

2023

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A news-based economic policy uncertainty index for Nigeria

Salisu,

Salisu

2024

Qual Quant

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In this study, we develop the first daily news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for Nigeria, which was previously not covered in recent EPU indices. The need to track economic uncertainties in Nigeria becomes crucial for investment and policy, especially with the renewed interest in the country as an important investment destination. To construct the EPU index, we use relevant keywords from articles in prominent newspapers in the country, covering the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic, with a data scope of January 2010 to November 2022. We evaluate the predictability of the index by examining its connection with economic and financial variables like exchange rates, stock prices, and inflation in Nigeria. The results are robust to alternative model specifications, data frequencies, and multiple forecast horizons. We hope to extend this exercise to other useful indices, including Geopolitical Risk, Financial Stress Indicators, and Monetary Policy Uncertainty, which are not readily available for Africa, including Nigeria.

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Economic policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure in Nigeria: a quantile regression analysis

Cited by 2 publications

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Financial Development and Unemployment in MENA: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel Causality and Quantile via Moment Regression

Financial Development and Unemployment in MENA: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel Causality and Quantile via Moment Regression

A news-based economic policy uncertainty index for Nigeria

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