Economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and cash holdings: evidence from Saudi Arabia

Abstract

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) on corporate cash holding level and speed of adjustment (SOA) in one of the most important emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa, Saudi Arabia. It also investigates whether Shariah-compliance as well as financial constraints affect the relationship between both EPU and GPR and corporate cash holdings.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs GMM regression considering a sample of 140 nonfinancial firms drawn from the Saudi stock market over the period 2002 to 2019.FindingsThe authors find evidence in support of the precautionary motive hypothesis. Facing costly external financing induced by economic policy-related uncertainty and geopolitical tension, Saudi firms tend to accumulate cash as a buffer against negative shocks to their cash flows. The results also show that the positive impact of EPU and GPR on the level of cash holding is less pronounced in Shariah-compliant firms, whereas it is more pronounced in more financially constrained firms. Evidence also reveals that the estimated adjustment coefficients show that Saudi firms adjust more quickly toward their target cash ratio in periods of high economic instability and geopolitical risks.Practical implicationsThis study has important implications for managers, policymakers and regulators. For managers, the study is an important reference to understand and design cash management policies by considering factors measured at the country level. More specifically, managers should pay more attention to periods of heightened uncertainties and geopolitical tensions in which the availability of funds is reduced. For policymakers and regulators, this study may be useful in assessing the effect of economic instability on firm’s cash holding decision. Therefore, in an effort to increase the supply of external financing available to firms, policymakers may devise investment friendly environment by controlling country-specific factors.Originality/valueThis paper shows how EPU and GPR as institutional environment factors affect cash holding decision in an oil-rich country.

Does internal cash flow-external financing sensitivity react to economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk? Evidence from Saudi Arabia

“…It follows a substitutionary relation between internal funds availability and external financing. Thus, to the extent that firms suffer more from information asymmetries during periods of heightened EPU and GPR (Phan et al , 2019; Javadi et al , 2021; Guizani et al , 2023), their external financing is relatively less sensitive to internal cash flow shocks, that is, a more dependence on their internally generated funds.…”