Economic policy uncertainty, governance institutions and economic performance in Africa: are there regional differences?

Ekeocha, Davidmac O.; Ogbuabor, Jonathan E.; Ogbonna, Oliver E.; Orji, Anthony

doi:10.1007/s10644-022-09472-7

Cited by 12 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…This finding is consistent with some studies ( e.g . Caggiano et al, 2020; Čižmešija et al, 2017; Ekeocha et al, 2023; Kang et al, 2020; Mumtaz & Musso, 2021; van Robays, 2016) that have also established that uncertainty impacts negatively on economic activities. Clearly, this finding is consistent with the realities of African economies.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following the Global Terrorism Report of the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP, 2022), the count of fatalities resulting from terrorist attacks within a particular year represents terrorism fatalities, whereas the number of terrorist incidents occurring in a given year represents terrorism incidence. In this study, we followed Ekeocha et al (2021) and Ekeocha et al (2023) by computing economic policy uncertainty using the simple arithmetic average of the corresponding 12 monthly values. This study also includes other control variables that have been identified as determinants of economic complexity in the extant literature, including trade openness (% GDP), international tourism (number of arrivals), physical capital stock and institutional quality (Nguyen et al, 2020; Saadi, 2020; Vu, 2022; Wiredu et al, 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Accordingly, we formulate the dynamic model following Ekeocha et al (2021), Ogbonna et al (2021, 2022) and Ekeocha et al (2023) as follows:

{ECI}_{i, t} goodbreak= α_{i} goodbreak+ ψ {ECI}_{i, t - 1} goodbreak+ δ_{1} {italicFA normalT}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{2} {EPU}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{3} {INSTQ}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{4} italicINSTQ * {FAT}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{5} italicINSTQ * {EPU}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{6} X_{i, t} goodbreak+ π_{i, t},

{ECI}_{i, t} goodbreak= α_{i} goodbreak+ goodbreak+ ψ {ECI}_{i, t - 1} goodbreak+ δ_{1} {INC}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{2} {EPU}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{3} {INSTQ}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{4} italicINSTQ * {INC}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{5} italicINSTQ * {EPU}_{normali, t} goodbreak+ δ_{6} X_{i, t} goodbreak+ π_{i, t},

where

π_{i, t} = μ_{i} + ε_{i, t}

, where

μ_{i}

is the country specific effect and the error term,

ε_{i, t} ~ italiciidN ((),, 0, σ_{ε}^{2})

…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following Asongu and Odhiambo (2020), we lagged the explanatory variables because this tends to reduce potential reverse causality with the dependent variables. Accordingly, we formulate the dynamic model following Ekeocha et al (2021), Ogbonna et al (2021Ogbonna et al ( , 2022 and Ekeocha et al (2023) as follows:…”

Section: Model Specificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of terrorism and economic policy uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa: A study of the moderating role of governance institutions

Ogbuabor,

Emeka,

Nwosu

2023

South African J Economics

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Following the paucity of empirical evidence on the effects of terrorism and uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa and the moderating role of governance institutions on these relationships, this study raised two important questions. First, how are terrorism and uncertainty impacting on economic complexity in Africa? Second, how are governance institutions moderating the effects of terrorism and uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa? To answer these questions, the study employed pooled ordinary least squares and dynamic system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators, with a panel of 33 African countries over the period 2010–2021. We find that the unconditional effects of terrorism and uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa are predominantly negative and significant. We also find that governance institutions predominantly have unconditional positive and significant impact on economic complexity in Africa but failed to moderate the adverse effect of uncertainty on economic complexity. However, trade openness, international tourism and lagged economic complexity are potent factors promoting economic complexity in Africa, while physical capital stock remained a deterring factor. The study concluded that policymakers and leaders in Africa should engage in collaborative efforts at the African Union level to promote high‐quality institutions, while simultaneously addressing the detrimental effects of terrorism and uncertainty on the continent.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Accordingly, we formulate the dynamic model following Ekeocha et al (2021), Ogbonna et al (2021, 2022) and Ekeocha et al (2023) as follows:

{ECI}_{i, t} goodbreak= α_{i} goodbreak+ ψ {ECI}_{i, t - 1} goodbreak+ δ_{1} {italicFA normalT}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{2} {EPU}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{3} {INSTQ}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{4} italicINSTQ * {FAT}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{5} italicINSTQ * {EPU}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{6} X_{i, t} goodbreak+ π_{i, t},

{ECI}_{i, t} goodbreak= α_{i} goodbreak+ goodbreak+ ψ {ECI}_{i, t - 1} goodbreak+ δ_{1} {INC}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{2} {EPU}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{3} {INSTQ}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{4} italicINSTQ * {INC}_{i, t} goodbreak+ δ_{5} italicINSTQ * {EPU}_{normali, t} goodbreak+ δ_{6} X_{i, t} goodbreak+ π_{i, t},

where

π_{i, t} = μ_{i} + ε_{i, t}

, where

μ_{i}

is the country specific effect and the error term,

ε_{i, t} ~ italiciidN ((),, 0, σ_{ε}^{2})

…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Specificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of terrorism and economic policy uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa: A study of the moderating role of governance institutions

Ogbuabor,

Emeka,

Nwosu

2023

South African J Economics

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“…Ekeocha et al (2023),Ogbonna et al (2022), andOgbuabor et al (2023b) by formulating a dynamic panel data model as follows:…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Terrorism and economic complexity in Africa: The unconditional impact of military expenditure

Emeka,

Ogbuabor,

Ekeocha

2024

African Development Review

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Following the rising wave of terrorism in Africa, particularly in the last decade, this study investigated the effect of terrorism on economic complexity in the region as well as the moderating role of military expenditure in the terrorism–economic complexity relationship. A panel of 34 African economies was used over the period 2010–2021. The study also used the dynamic system generalized method of moments framework. We find that the unconditional effect of terrorism on economic complexity in Africa is predominantly negative and significant, and that military expenditure in the region has been ineffective in moderating this adverse effect. This finding remained robust regardless of whether terrorism is measured by the number of terrorism incidents, fatalities, injuries, or hostages. However, our results showed that industrialization, urbanization, and governance institutional quality are potent channels for promoting economic complexity in Africa. Among others, the study emphasized the need for policymakers and leaders in Africa to collaborate at the level of the African Union to address the detrimental effects of terrorism on the continent.

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Effects of entrepreneurship and governance quality on global and regional economic performance: A pathway to sustainable development

Ogbuabor,

Emeka,

Ogbuabor

2024

Sustainable Development

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This study investigated the effects of entrepreneurship and governance quality on global and regional economic performance, and the moderating influence of governance quality on the entrepreneurship‐economic performance nexus. The study used a panel of 109 countries from 2010 to 2022. Prais‐Winsten regression, standard Fixed Effects regression with robust standard errors, Fixed Effects regression with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors, and the dynamic system GMM regression were used. We find that the unconditional effect of entrepreneurship on global economic performance is mainly negative, while governance quality predominantly exerts positive effect on global economic performance, but generally failed to moderate the adverse effect of entrepreneurship. Interestingly, we find regional disparities indicating that the patterns in Europe and Asia align with the global results, while the dynamics in the Americas show that the unconditional effect of entrepreneurship on economic performance is mainly positive and significant, with governance quality also exerting significant positive influence and reinforcing the positive effect of entrepreneurship. For Africa, we find that entrepreneurship is a potent driver of economic performance when it is measured using Total Early‐stage Entrepreneurial Activity and Entrepreneurial Employee Activity. We discussed the policy implications of these findings in relation to the sustainable development goals.

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Economic policy uncertainty, governance institutions and economic performance in Africa: are there regional differences?

Cited by 12 publications

References 54 publications

Effects of terrorism and economic policy uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa: A study of the moderating role of governance institutions

Effects of terrorism and economic policy uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa: A study of the moderating role of governance institutions

Terrorism and economic complexity in Africa: The unconditional impact of military expenditure

Effects of entrepreneurship and governance quality on global and regional economic performance: A pathway to sustainable development

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