Economic returns of family planning and fertility decline in India, 1991–2061

Abstract

Investment in family planning (FP) provides returns through a lifetime. Global evidence shows that FP is the second-best buy in terms of return on investment after liberalizing trade. In this study, we estimate the cumulative benefits of FP investments for India from 1991 to 2016 and project them up to 2061 with four scenarios of fertility levels. The findings suggest that India will have greater elasticity of FP investments to lifetime economic returns compared to the world average (cost–revenue ratio of 1:120). We have taken four scenarios for the goalpost, viz., 2.1, 1.8, 1.6, and 1.4. Although different scenarios of total fertility rate (TFR) levels at the goalpost (i.e., the year 2061) offer varied lifetime returns from FP, scenario TFR < 1.8 will be counterproductive and will reduce the potential benefits. With a comprehensive approach, if the country focuses more on improving the quality of FP services and on reducing the unmet need for FP to enhance reproductive health care and expand maximum opportunities for education and employment for both women and men, it can improve its potential to reap more benefits.

Potential demographic dividend for India, 2001 to 2061: A macro-simulation projection using the spectrum model

“…We choose UN South Asia as a regional model life table for population projection. Our assumption is in line with Stover, Heaton, and Ross (2006) and Goli et al (2021) which found the South Asian model to be more consistent for mortality estimates for India.…”

“…Despite this, it is believed that rising urbanisation and improved status of women with rising literacy rate can improve SRB in future (Goli et al 2021). We assume in the Demographic-Emphasis Scenario that SRB will improve and stabilize at 108 boys per hundred girls at birth by 2061, which is in line with the projections made by United Nations (2019).…”

“…We assume the Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR) at five years interval for the women in the age group 15-49 years to remain unchanged in the Demographic-As-Usual Scenario. However, with the significant advancement in family planning programmes and the resulting decline in the fertility level in the country, there has been a dramatic shift in the lifetime births that occur at each age group (Goli et al, 2021). By using United Nations (2019) medium variant fertility projections, we observe in the Demographic-Emphasis Scenario that a majority of births are concentrated in the age group of 20-34 years for the period 2001-2020.…”

“…Lutz, Cuaresma, Kebede, Prskawetz, Sanderson, and Striessnig (2019) simulated GDP per capita paths for Nigeria under three different scenarios to highlight the importance of human capital serving as a catalyst to bring the about larger impact of age-structural changes on economic growth. In the context of India, the study by Goli et al (2021) highlighted the cumulative benefits of family planning investments from 1991 to 2061 by considering four scenarios of fertility levels. The results from the simulation exercise revealed that improvement in the quality of family planning services, and provision of quality healthcare, education, and employment opportunities could provide the maximum benefits.…”

“…Our simulation work is based on the robust theoretical framework and methodological approaches adopted by some of the earlier pioneering work in this field, such as by Coale and Hoover (1958) and later its extensions by Ashraf, Weil, and Wilde (2013), Karra, Canning, andWilde (2017), andGoli, James, Srinivasan, Mishra, Rana, andReddy (2021). (except for the study by Goli & Pandey, 2010).…”