Economic value and latent demand for agricultural drought forecast: Emerging market for weather and climate information in Central-Southern Nigeria

Awolala, David Olufemi; Mutemi, Joseph; Adefisan, Elijah A.; Antwi‐Agyei, Philip; Taylor, Andrea; Muita, Richard; Bosire, Emily; Mutai, Bethwel; Nkiaka, Elias

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2023.100478

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 84 publications

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“…Channels that enable tailored messages based on location, individual preferences, and specific user needs can add value to the service, thereby increasing their WTP. It was found that the dissemination of information via mobile phones can assist in timely decision making [39].…”

Section: Research Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Valuation of a Heatwave Early Warning System for Mitigating Risks Associated with Heat-Related Illness in Central Vietnam

Kien,

My,

Thu

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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Heatwaves are increasingly recognized as a severe natural hazard that pose substantial threats to human wellbeing and sustainability with physical, mental, and economic impacts. Heatwave Early Warning Systems (HEWSs) have emerged as a promising solution to mitigate these adverse impacts. This study aims to valuate a Short Message Service (SMS)-based early warning system specifically targeting heat-vulnerable populations and their determinants in central Vietnam, an area prone to heat-related illnesses. By employing the contingent valuation method, individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) for the warning system and the determinants of the WTP were assessed. The findings showed an average WTP of VND 283,110 (~USD 11) per person per year, according to the parametric estimate. The total WTP for the affected population in central Vietnam reached VND 857,283,678,000 or USD 37,273,203 per year, assuming that 50% of the heat-vulnerable population contributes to HEWSs financially. Significant determinants of WTP were identified, including bid levels, cost of heat-related illnesses, background diseases, and exposure to heat. Policymakers and health authorities can utilize these findings to develop effective adaptation strategies for preventing and mitigating heat-related illnesses, while also promoting sustainable development in central Vietnam.

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Section: Research Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Valuation of a Heatwave Early Warning System for Mitigating Risks Associated with Heat-Related Illness in Central Vietnam

Kien,

My,

Thu

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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“…Water management and response policies have also been proposed to minimize economic losses [29,30,[32][33][34][35]. In Nigeria, Spain, and Kenya, the economic value of drought forecasting information was assessed, and policy and technical measures were proposed to enhance farmers' adaptive capacity [37,38].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and Applicability Evaluation of Damage Scale Analysis Techniques for Agricultural Drought

Song,

Joo,

Kim

et al. 2024

Water

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In recent years, the intensity and frequency of droughts have been increasing with the advent of the climate crisis. Agricultural droughts have a significant economic and social impact. Agricultural drought is not only a natural disaster but also leads to food security threats and reduced economic activities, such as decreased productivity. Therefore, it is very important to specify the scale of agricultural drought and quantitatively estimate the economic damage. In this study, we developed an analytical methodology to quantitatively assess the economic damage of agricultural drought and estimated the damage of agricultural drought in 2018 and 2019 for the Republic of Korea. The 2018 agricultural drought was estimated to have caused USD 4.438 million in damage cost and USD 5.180 million in recovery cost. The 2019 drought was less damaging than the previous year, with an estimated damage cost of USD 286,000 and recovery costs of USD 218,000. The results suggest that the economic impact of agricultural drought varies by region depending on the frequency and intensity of the drought and confirm the importance of regional strategies for effective drought management and response. The impacts of agricultural drought go beyond short-term agricultural losses and lead to long-term economic burdens. Therefore, the results of this study are expected to be used as a basis for understanding the impacts of agricultural drought on national economies and for developing policies and strategies to minimize impacts.

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Forecasting monthly rainfall using hybrid time-series models and Monte Carlo simulation amidst security challenges: a case study of five districts from northern Nigeria

Danbatta,

Muhammad,

Varol

et al. 2024

Environ Dev Sustain

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Nigeria’s agricultural sector relies heavily on rainfall, but insecurity in various regions poses significant challenges. This study aims to address this issue by identifying secure, rain-rich areas in northern Nigeria to support sustainable agriculture. Two models, one integrating classical statistical methods (polynomial and Fourier series fittings) and another using a hybrid approach (artificial neural networks, polynomial, and Fourier series fittings), were employed to analyze historical rainfall data from 1981 to 2021 in the selected districts (Kano, Zaria, Bida, Nguru, and Yelwa) known for their rainfall levels and security stability. The study demonstrates that the machine learning-classical hybrid model outperforms existing models, including the classical-classical hybrid and benchmark models like Iwok’s (2016) model, Fourier series, and SARIMA models. Multi-step ahead forecasting with this hybrid model reveals potential changes in rainfall patterns. Notably, Kano, Zaria, Bida, and Yelwa are expected to experience increased rainfall from 2022 to 2026, while Nguru may initially witness decreased rainfall, with improvement in the final year (2026). In conclusion, this study introduces an effective approach for rainfall modeling and forecasting, facilitating the identification of secure agricultural regions in northern Nigeria. These findings carry implications for crop production and agricultural development, contributing to climate resilience efforts and assisting stakeholders in strategic decision-making for regional agricultural investments.

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Economic value and latent demand for agricultural drought forecast: Emerging market for weather and climate information in Central-Southern Nigeria

Cited by 8 publications

References 84 publications

Valuation of a Heatwave Early Warning System for Mitigating Risks Associated with Heat-Related Illness in Central Vietnam

Valuation of a Heatwave Early Warning System for Mitigating Risks Associated with Heat-Related Illness in Central Vietnam

Development and Applicability Evaluation of Damage Scale Analysis Techniques for Agricultural Drought

Forecasting monthly rainfall using hybrid time-series models and Monte Carlo simulation amidst security challenges: a case study of five districts from northern Nigeria

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