Economically optimal timing for crop disease control under uncertainty: an options approach

Mbah, Martial L. Ndeffo; Forster, Graeme A.; Wesseler, Justus; Gilligan, Christopher A.

doi:10.1098/rsif.2010.0056

Cited by 28 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(41 reference statements)

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“…For instance, habitat fragmentation is often considered to affect in a negative way meta-populations of species of conservation interest, but could make dispersal of plant pathogens more difficult across the shifting distributional ranges of their old and new hosts (Margosian et al 2009), unless long-distance links are provided by plant trade ). This kind of trade-offs makes it important to involve economists in the formulation of plant health policy under uncertainty (Horan and Lupi 2010;Ndeffo Mbah et al 2010;Moore et al 2010;Bradford and D'Amato 2012).…”

Section: Interdisciplinarity Stakeholder Involvement and Trade-offsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

et al. 2012

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There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases. This overview addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods.Keywords Adaptive ecosystem management . Biotic interactions . Landscape pathology . Phytophthora ramorum . Plant disease epidemiology . Tree fungal pathogens Up to the 1990s, there was little information about climate change impacts on plant disease. For example, Eur J Plant Pathol

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Section: Interdisciplinarity Stakeholder Involvement and Trade-offsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

et al. 2012

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“…Optimal control models are now widely used in human and animal epidemiology, and are starting to emerge within forest epidemiology. Some examples include exploration of the optimal management strategies to detect (Mehta et al 2007) and control (Mbah et al 2010;Sims et al 2010;Lee and Lashari 2014) pathogens and pests. The benefit of an optimal control framework is that it combines the ecological, epidemiological and economic factors which all contribute to effective management decisions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Disease on Optimal Forest Rotation: A Generalisable Analytical Framework

Macpherson

Kleczkowski

Healey

et al. 2016

Environ Resource Econ

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The arrival of novel pathogens and pests can have a devastating effect on the market values of forests. Calibrating management strategies/decisions to consider the effect of disease may help to reduce disease impacts on forests. Here, we use a novel generalisable, bioeconomic model framework, which combines an epidemiological compartmental model with a Faustmann optimal rotation length model, to explore the management decision of when to harvest a single rotation, even-aged, plantation forest under varying disease conditions. Sensitivity analysis of the rate of spread of infection and the effect of disease on the timber value reveals a key trade-off between waiting for the timber to grow and the infection spreading further. We show that the optimal rotation length, which maximises the net present value of the forest, is reduced when timber from infected trees has no value; but when the infection spreads quickly, and the value of timber from infected trees is non-zero, it can be optimal to wait until the disease-free optimal rotation length to harvest. Our original approach provides an exemplar framework showing how a bioeconomic model can be used to examine the effect of tree diseases on management strategies/decisions.

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“…The many uncertainties about the epidemiology of P. ramorum make it important to consider the potential effects of uncertainty on plant epidemiological models which include economic factors (Ndeffo Mbah et al, 2010). Similar considerations have been made by Vàclavik et al (2010) in their study about prioritising P. ramorum detection efforts across landscapes differing in potential susceptibility.…”

Section: Options To Reduce Infestation and Magnitude Of Impact In Thementioning

confidence: 80%

“…In another paper, Ndeffo Mbah and Gilligan (2010b) incorporated economic factors in an epidemiological model of a pathogen able to infect two host species, with symmetric or asymmetric infection rates, a model motivated by the sudden oak death outbreaks in California. The many uncertainties about the epidemiology of P. ramorum make it important to consider the potential effects of uncertainty on plant epidemiological models which include economic factors (Ndeffo Mbah et al, 2010). Similar considerations have been made by Vàclavik et al (2010) in their study about prioritising P. ramorum detection efforts across landscapes differing in potential susceptibility.…”

Section: Options To Reduce Infestation and Magnitude Of Impact In Thementioning

confidence: 91%

Scientific Opinion on the Pest Risk Analysis onPhytophthora ramorumprepared by the FP6 project RAPRA

Rossi¹

2011

EFSA Journal

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The Panel on Plant Health was asked to deliver a scientific opinion on the Pest Risk Analysis on Phytophthora ramorum prepared by the FP6 project RAPRA, taking into account comments by Member States and additional information since RAPRA. P. ramorum is the oomycete causing sudden oak death in the USA and leaf and twig blight/dieback on a range of ornamental species in North America and Europe. Currently P. ramorum is not listed as a harmful organism in Council Directive 2000/29/EC, but the Commission adopted in 2002 provisional emergency measures to prevent introduction into and spread within the EU. Recent large-scale outbreaks in Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi) plantations in the UK and Ireland have worsened the potential consequences in the risk assessment area. However, the Panel concludes that the broad narrative in the RAPRA report stands and supports its conclusion that "There is a risk of further entry (of known or new lineages and/or mating types), establishment and […] impact". It is advisable to avoid introductions of different lineages because of inherent phenotypic differences and the potential for sexual recombination. The Panel supports the management options proposed in the RAPRA report and adds further measures for consideration. Uncertainty remains over the extent to which the association between control measures and gradual reduction in the number of cases in nurseries is causal. The emergency measures have not prevented outbreaks occurring in the natural environment. The many other remaining uncertainties (fitness of progeny, hybridisation with other Phytophthora species, host range and epidemiological role of new hosts, early detection of new outbreaks, understanding of long-range dispersal, structure of plant trade networks, origin of the pathogen) call for further research on P. ramorum across Europe. 4 Editorial changes have been made on pages 51 (acronym PRA removed as it was not in line with the Panel's dictionary as discussed in Appendix 2 of the Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA) and 89 (statement which referred to the Panel agreeing with the RAPRA conclusion that "P. ramorum fulfils the criteria of a quarantine pest" was removed as requested by the Panel during adoption of the draft opinion). The changes do not affect the overall conclusions of the opinion. To avoid confusion the original version has been removed from the website. The scope of this Scientific Opinion is the evaluation of the RAPRA report, taking into consideration the comments of Member States as well as additional information published after finalisation of the RAPRA report, or not cited in the RAPRA report. A systematic literature search until March 2011 was carried out. It should be noted that the scientific community is concerned by the shift of P. ramorum to new hosts (with a special focus on the Japanese larch) and its further spread, and therefore new results of ongoing research are constantly be...

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Economically optimal timing for crop disease control under uncertainty: an options approach

Cited by 28 publications

References 27 publications

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

The Effects of Disease on Optimal Forest Rotation: A Generalisable Analytical Framework

Scientific Opinion on the Pest Risk Analysis onPhytophthora ramorumprepared by the FP6 project RAPRA

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