Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise

Abstract

Abstract. The economy-wide implications of sea level rise in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. This allows for a better estimate of the welfare effects of sea level rise than the common direct cost estimates; and for an estimate of the impact of sea level rise on greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, general equilibrium effects increase the welfare costs of sea level rise, but not necessarily in every sector or region. In the absence of coastal protection, economies that rely most on agriculture are hit hardest. Although energy is substituted for land, overall energy consumption falls with the shrinking economy, hurting energy exporters. With full coastal protection, GDP increases, particularly in regions with substantial dike building, but utility falls, least in regions that protect their coasts and export energy. Energy prices rise and energy consumption falls. The costs of full protection exceed the costs of losing land. The results also show direct costs -the usual method for estimating welfare changes due to sea level rise -are a bad approximation of the general equilibrium welfare effects; previous estimates of the economic impact of sea level rise are therefore biased.

Economic impacts of climate change in Europe: sea-level rise

“…The top-down assessment uses the GTAP-EF model, which is a CGE model representing the major EU economies at a country level, and the rest of the world as an aggregate region (see Bosello et al 2007). In contrast to Deke et al (2001), the present study does not restrict its analysis to the cost of coastal protection, but explicitly examines land losses and their wider economic consequences.…”

“…To assess these system-wide effects, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy, along the methodology described in Bosello et al (2007). The CGE model uses land losses and adaptation costs computed by the DIVA model as input data, and considers four sectors and 26 regions (25 European States and the Rest of the World), as specified in Table 5.…”

Groundwater dynamics in subterranean estuaries of coastal unconfined aquifers: Controls on submarine groundwater discharge and chemical inputs to the ocean

“…Up to 1.4 billion people will live in low-elevation coastal zones with a flood frequency of 1 in 100 y by 2060, representing a 120% increase in the coastal population since the year 2000 [Neumann et al, 2015]. Pressures associated with population growth and intensifying coastal development will be compounded by climate change effects including sea level rise (SLR) and the increasing frequency and intensity of coastal hazards (e.g., storm surges, hurricanes) [Bosello et al, 2007;McGranahan et al, 2007;Alongi, 2008;Halpern et al, 2008;Knutson et al, 2010;Hallegatte et al, 2011]. These pressures exacerbate the challenges inherent in sustainable management of coastal resources, and underscore the need for sound understanding of land-ocean interactions [Borja, 2005;Hamilton and Gehrke, 2005;Day et al, 2008], including the exchange of water and chemicals across the land-ocean interface.…”

Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health

“…In this paper, we estimate the higher-order economic effects (or indirect costs) of human health impacts, and compare these to the direct costs. This is part of a larger research programme, in which earlier papers looked at sea level rise (Bosello et al, 2004) and tourism (Berrittella et al, 2004). Jorgenson et al (2004) do something similar, but their model is restricted to the USA.…”