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Lesutienė, Jūratė; Andrašūnas, V.; Čerkasova, Natalja; Gasiūnaitė, Zita Rasuolė; Idzelytė, Rasa; Ivanauskas, E.; Kaziukonytė, K.; Mėžinė, Jovita; Vilkevičiūtė, Jolanta

doi:10.5281/zenodo.6546247

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…Currently these flood events occur in spring, but will likely occur in winter in the future, and with increased severity, which will pose a serious concern to the local population and stakeholders. The currently functioning polder system in the Nemunas River delta (Lesutienė et al, 2022)…”

Section: Water Flowmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, some decrease in distribution areas of some estuarine species (mysids, barnacles) could be foreseen. A recent analysis (Ivanauskas et al, 2022) indicated statistical relationship between WRT and salinity and both catches and populations of main commercial fish populations. This is in stark contrast to the predictions for the Baltic Sea fishery, where catches are expected to be decreasing in quantity, and especially in the quality (Climate Change in the Baltic Sea, 2021).…”

Section: Impacts On the Ecosystem Structure And Functionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling application for climate change impact assessment in the Nemunas River watershed–Curonian Lagoon–south-eastern Baltic Sea continuum

Idzelytė

Čerkasova

Mėžinė

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. We analyse the cumulative impacts of climate change in a complex basin-lagoon-sea system continuum, which covers the Nemunas River basin, Curonian Lagoon, and the south-eastern part of the Baltic Sea. A unique state-of-the-art coupled modelling system, consisting of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, has been developed and used for this purpose. Results of four regional downscaled models from the Rossby Centre high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model have been bias-corrected using in situ measurements, and were used as forcing to assess the changes that the continuum will undergo until the end of this century. Results show that the Curonian Lagoon will be subjected to higher river discharges that in turn increase the outgoing fluxes into the Baltic Sea. Through these higher fluxes, both the water residence time and saltwater intrusion event frequency will decrease. Most of these changes will be more pronounced in the northern part of the lagoon, which is more likely to be influenced by the variations in the Nemunas River discharge. The southern part of the lagoon will experience lesser changes. Water temperatures in the entire lagoon and the south-eastern Baltic Sea will steadily increase, and salinity values will decrease. However, the foreseen changes in physical characteristics are not of the scale suggesting significant shifts in the ecosystem functioning, but are expected to manifest in some quantitative alterations in the nutrient retention capacity. However, some ecosystem services such as ice fishing are expected to vanish completely due to the loss of ice cover.

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Section: Water Flowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Impacts On the Ecosystem Structure And Functionsmentioning

confidence: 99%