Ecosystem Stability in the Ugan–Kuqa River Basin, Xinjiang, China: Investigation of Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Driving Forces

Abstract

Ecosystem stability plays a pivotal role in safeguarding the enduring well-being of both the natural world and human society. This work explores the uncertainty surrounding changes in ecosystem stability and their response mechanisms at localized scales, focusing on the Ugan–Kuqa River Basin in Xinjiang, China. Based on remote sensing data and spatial lag modeling (SLM), we evaluated the spatial and temporal dynamics of the basin’s stability from 2001 to 2020. Additionally, structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to assess the impacts of climate conditions, human activities, and habitat fragmentation on ecosystem stability. The results of the study indicated that the basin ecosystem stability tended to increase in the temporal dimension, and that the spatial distribution was greater in the north than in the south. In addition, the trade-off between resistance and recovery in the watershed decreased, with a considerable increase in high-resistance–high-recovery zones. Climate warming and increased humidity have emerged as the predominant factors driving the watershed ecosystem stability.