Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century

Wu, Shaohong; Dai, Erfu; Huang, Mei; Shao, Xuemei; Li, Shuangcheng; Tao, Bo

doi:10.1007/s11434-007-0197-x

Cited by 20 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Our results demonstrate that the slightly and moderately vulnerable zones were the largest areas in the URMR during the period from 2000 to 2010. Similar results were reported for vulnerability in China based on potential vegetation and climate change [ 69 , 70 ]. After analyzing the spatial pattern of vulnerability in the URMR, we propose that the vulnerability of Songpan County is low, because it is located on the source of the Minjiang River (a national natural protection zone), and has a small population with low levels of human activity.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…The average global temperature increased by 0.065°C per decade, with a total change of 0.85°C from 1880 to 2012 [ 6 ]. Climate warming has affected ecosystems in different ways [ 7 ], particularly in areas with vulnerable ecosystems, such as the Tibetan Plateau. Meanwhile, intensified human activities and the unsustainable use of natural resources have led to greater ecosystem degradation [ 8 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Assessing the ecological vulnerability of the upper reaches of the Minjiang River

Zhang

Sun

et al. 2017

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The upper reaches of the Minjiang River (URMR), located on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau in southwestern China, are an important component of the ecological barrier of the Upper Yangtze River Basin. Climate change and human activities have increased the ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of the region, which may pose a threat to the ecological security of the Yangtze River Basin and have negative impacts on local social and economic development. In this study, we analyzed land use and cover change (LUCC) of the URMR between 2000 and 2010, and found that the total rate of LUCC was less than 0.50% during this period. In addition, net primary production (NPP) was employed to describe the changes in ecosystem sensitivity and vulnerability, and the results demonstrated that slightly and moderately sensitive and vulnerable zones occupied the largest area, distributed mainly in forest, shrub, and grassland ecosystems. However, compared with the period from 2000 to 2005, the ecological sensitivity and vulnerability showed a worsening trend in the period 2005–2010. Exploring the relationship between vulnerability/sensitivity and environmental factors, we found that sensitivity and vulnerability were positively correlated with precipitation (>700 mm) and aridity index (>36 mm/°C). The results highlight that the future ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of URMR should be further investigated, and that the LUCC induced by human activities and climate change have caused alteration of in ecosystem vulnerability.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the ecological vulnerability of the upper reaches of the Minjiang River

Zhang

Sun

et al. 2017

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The complexity of ecosystems makes the relevant vulnerability assessment studies have no uniform method (Turner et al 2003;Füssel and Klein 2006), and researchers have worked on this issue from multiple perspectives and spatial scales. For instance, Wu et al (2007) and Zhao & Wu et al (2014) used the temporal variation of net primary productivity (NPP) as the indicator of ecosystem vulnerability. Gonzalez et al (2010) used vegetation change to assess ecosystem vulnerability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main shortcoming in present ecosystem vulnerability assessment works is that researchers tend to focus on one specific aspect of the ecosystem such as biome shift (Gonzalez et al 2010), vegetation intactness (Watson et al 2013) or vegetation productivity (Wu et al 2007), while less attention has been paid on a method that can provide comprehensive assessment for these critical aspects of ecosystem. Here we recommend a vulnerability assessing methodology that integrates ecosystem's net primary productivity, vegetation stability (a new indicator that combines vegetation intactness and vegetation change) and its exposure to climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change based on climate exposure, vegetation stability and productivity

Wang

Jiang

et al. 2020

For. Ecosyst.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Global warming has brought many negative impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, which makes the vulnerability of ecosystems one of the hot issues in current ecological research. Here, we proposed an assessment method based on the IPCC definition of vulnerability. The exposure to future climate was characterized using a moisture index (MI) that integrates the effects of temperature and precipitation. Vegetation stability, defined as the proportion of intact natural vegetation that remains unchanged under changing climate, was used together with vegetation productivity trend to represent the sensitivity and adaptability of ecosystems. Using this method, we evaluated the vulnerability of ecosystems in Southwestern China under two future representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) with MC2 dynamic global vegetation model. Results: (1) Future (2017-2100) climate change will leave 7.4% (under RCP 4.5) and 57.4% of (under RCP 8.5) of areas under high or very high vulnerable climate exposure; (2) in terms of vegetation stability, nearly 45% of the study area will show high or very high vulnerability under both RCPs. Beside the impacts of human disturbance on natural vegetation coverage (vegetation intactness), climate change will cause obvious latitudinal movements in vegetation distribution, but the direction of movements under two RCPs were opposite due to the difference in water availability; (3) vegetation productivity in most areas will generally increase and remain a low vulnerability in the future; (4) an assessment based on the above three aspects together indicated that future climate change will generally have an adverse impact on all ecosystems in Southwestern China, with non-vulnerable areas account for only about 3% of the study area under both RCPs. However, compared with RCP 4.5, the areas with mid-and highvulnerability under RCP 8.5 scenario increased by 13% and 16%, respectively. Conclusion: Analyses of future climate exposure and projected vegetation distribution indicate widespread vulnerability of ecosystems in Southwestern China, while vegetation productivity in most areas will show an increasing trend to the end of twenty-first century. Based on new climate indicators and improved vulnerability assessment rules, our method provides an extra option for a more comprehensive evaluation of ecosystem vulnerability, and should be further tested at larger spatial scales in order to provide references for regional, or even global, ecosystem conservation works.

show abstract

“…Therefore, it is of importance to investigate spatial and temporal characteristics of the above critical values in China under global warming. In recent years, some works on climate change have been performed by Chinese scientists, such as numerical simulations of anthropogenic climate change using climate models [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18] , analyses of climate change trend using available models' datasets [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26] , and other pertinent projection researches [27][28][29] , etc. However, how the above critical values would evolve in China over the 21st century remains an open question so far.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble projection of 1–3°C warming in China

2009

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Studies on the influences of climate change on biogeochemical cycles and on the key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change suggest that annual surface temperature rise of 1℃, 2℃ and 3℃ above the present level would lead to changes in extreme weather and climate events, food production, fresh water resources, biodiversity, human mortality, etc. Here two sets of simulations as performed with seventeen atmosphere-ocean general circulation models ( Climate change is closely related to our living environment and has been one of the most important and active branches in geosciences. Global mean surface temperatures have risen by 0.74±0.18℃ over the 1906 to 2005 period and the rate of warming over the last 50 years is almost double that over the last 100 years [1]

show abstract

Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century

Cited by 20 publications

References 12 publications

Assessing the ecological vulnerability of the upper reaches of the Minjiang River

Assessing the ecological vulnerability of the upper reaches of the Minjiang River

Assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change based on climate exposure, vegetation stability and productivity

Ensemble projection of 1–3°C warming in China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About