Ecosystems are showing symptoms of resilience loss

Rocha, Juan

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac73a8

Cited by 22 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 54 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Trends in a composite indicator of autocorrelation, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis of NDVI over 1981–2015 hints at greatest loss of ‘resilience’ in the tundra [11]. A more confusing composite indicator hints at primary production showing greatest ‘resilience’ loss in tundra and boreal forest [12]. However, these are regions where our results and previous studies [8] suggest poor fit of an autoregressive model.…”

Section: Results Across Scalesmentioning

confidence: 65%

“…Some existing studies have started to consider trends in ‘resilience’ over time, but do not present a mean value as a baseline, and use composite indicators that do not isolate recovery rate [11,12]. Trends in a composite indicator of autocorrelation, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis of NDVI over 1981–2015 hints at greatest loss of ‘resilience’ in the tundra [11].…”

Section: Results Across Scalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other studies (table 1) combine statistical indicators, including AR(1) and variance, into a composite indicator [11,12], but generally without clear justification for their relative weighting, and with the drawbacks of e.g. merging aspects of resilience and resistance, and double-counting the effects of recovery rate.…”

Section: Defining and Measuring Resiliencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…merging aspects of resilience and resistance, and double-counting the effects of recovery rate. Particularly problematic is where opposing signals of ‘critical speeding up’ (a questionable notion) and critical slowing down (well-established) are both considered as indicators of resilience loss in a single composite indicator [12].…”

Section: Defining and Measuring Resiliencementioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

A resilience sensing system for the biosphere

Lenton

Buxton

McKay

et al. 2022

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We are in a climate and ecological emergency, where climate change and direct anthropogenic interference with the biosphere are risking abrupt and/or irreversible changes that threaten our life-support systems. Efforts are underway to increase the resilience of some ecosystems that are under threat, yet collective awareness and action are modest at best. Here, we highlight the potential for a biosphere resilience sensing system to make it easier to see where things are going wrong, and to see whether deliberate efforts to make things better are working. We focus on global resilience sensing of the terrestrial biosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution through satellite remote sensing, utilizing the generic mathematical behaviour of complex systems—loss of resilience corresponds to slower recovery from perturbations, gain of resilience equates to faster recovery. We consider what subset of biosphere resilience remote sensing can monitor, critically reviewing existing studies. Then we present illustrative, global results for vegetation resilience and trends in resilience over the last 20 years, from both satellite data and model simulations. We close by discussing how resilience sensing nested across global, biome-ecoregion, and local ecosystem scales could aid management and governance at these different scales, and identify priorities for further work. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.

show abstract

Section: Results Across Scalesmentioning

confidence: 65%

Section: Results Across Scalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Defining and Measuring Resiliencementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Defining and Measuring Resiliencementioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

A resilience sensing system for the biosphere

Lenton

Buxton

McKay

et al. 2022

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…4 moisture that vegetation can access for transpiration 6,16,46 . Compared to other statistical metrics 39,[47][48][49] , Sr provides an early indication of forest-savanna transition and a more comprehensive understanding of ecosystem dynamics under water-limiting conditions 6,13 . Due to the considerable variability between hydroclimatic estimates from different ESMs, we assess resilience qualitatively by classifying forests.…”

Section: Figure 1 | Methodological Framework For Analysing the Tropic...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-fold increase in rainforests tipping risk beyond 1.5-2⁰C warming

Singh¹,

Ent²,

Fetzer³

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Tropical rainforests invest in their root systems to store soil moisture from water-rich periods for use in water-scarce periods. An inadequate root-zone soil moisture storage predisposes or forces these forest ecosystems to transition to a savanna-like state, devoid of their native structure and functions. Yet changes in soil moisture storage and its influence on the rainforest ecosystems under future climate change remain uncertain. Using the empirical understanding of root zone storage capacity, we assess the future state of the rainforests and the forest-savanna transition risk in South America and Africa under four different shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. We find that by the end of the 21st century, nearly one-third of the total forest area will be influenced by climate change. Furthermore, beyond 1.5-2⁰C warming, ecosystem recovery reduces gradually, whereas the forest-savanna transition risk increases several folds. For Amazon, this risk can grow by about 1.5-6 times compared to its immediate lower warming scenario, whereas for Congo, this risk growth is not substantial (0.7-1.65 times). The insight from this study underscores the urgent need to limit global surface temperatures below the Paris agreement.

show abstract

Resilience Thinking in Reindeer Husbandry

Tonkopeeva,

Skum,

Krarup-Hansen

et al. 2023

Springer Polar Sciences

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Resilience expresses the capacity of a social-ecological system to adapt to, absorb, or withstand perturbations and other stressors so that the system remains. Reindeer nomadic husbandry is a coupled social-ecological system that sustains resilience by interacting with the animals and environment: either the herders adjust their actions to animal behavior or change this behavior in ways that suit the herd and pastures. Stressors and shocks affecting Sámi reindeer husbandry are, for instance, sudden warm air temperatures with subsequent snow melting and freezing in winter, bad grazing conditions, loss of grazing lands, and even socio-economic reforms. All these are sudden, unprepared, or forced changes. Climate change resilience includes using reindeer herders’ Indigenous knowledge of selective breeding by maintaining different phenotypes of reindeer such as non-productive and castrated animals in the herd. Nevertheless, in Sámi reindeer husbandry in Norway today, low numbers of male reindeer and the absence of castrated animals challenge the herders’ resilience coping strategies. This chapter discusses factors that constrain resilience in herding societies, contribute to the transformation of reindeer husbandry and the erosion of resilience in the herding society.

show abstract

Ecosystems are showing symptoms of resilience loss

Cited by 22 publications

References 54 publications

A resilience sensing system for the biosphere

A resilience sensing system for the biosphere

Multi-fold increase in rainforests tipping risk beyond 1.5-2⁰C warming

Resilience Thinking in Reindeer Husbandry

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About