2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021sw002959
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ED‐ConvLSTM: A Novel Global Ionospheric Total Electron Content Medium‐Term Forecast Model

Abstract: In this paper, we proposed an innovative encoder‐decoder structure with a convolution long short‐term memory (ED‐ConvLSTM) network to forecast global total electron content (TEC) based on the International GNSS Service (IGS) TEC maps from 2005 to 2018 with 1‐hr time cadence. The ED‐ConvLSTM model is used to forecast TEC maps 1–7 days in advance through iterations. To investigate the model's performance, we compared the model with International Reference Ionosphere (IRI2016) model in 2014 and 2018, and compared… Show more

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Cited by 35 publications
(28 citation statements)
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References 62 publications
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“…Xia, Zhang, et al. (2022) used an innovative encoder‐decoder structure with a convolutional LSTM network to forecast GIMs. In their test set 2018, they achieved an RMSE of 1.65, 1.78, and 2.10 TECU for 1‐day, 2‐day, and 6‐day predictions, respectively.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Xia, Zhang, et al. (2022) used an innovative encoder‐decoder structure with a convolutional LSTM network to forecast GIMs. In their test set 2018, they achieved an RMSE of 1.65, 1.78, and 2.10 TECU for 1‐day, 2‐day, and 6‐day predictions, respectively.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…These approaches are promising in solving nonlinear prediction problems (Han et al., 2021) and therefore can predict TEC more accurately (e.g., L. Liu et al., 2020). Various models were developed for single‐station (e.g., Huang & Yuan, 2014; Huang et al., 2015; Tebabal et al., 2018), regional (Ferreira et al., 2017; Song et al., 2018; Tebabal et al., 2019; Xia et al., 2021), and global TEC forecast (Cesaroni et al., 2020; Chen et al., 2022; Lee et al., 2021; L. Liu et al., 2020, 2022; J. Tang et al., 2022; Xia, Liu, et al., 2022; Xia, Zhang, et al., 2022; Yang et al., 2022). Unlike single‐station and regional forecasts that are usually trained with time series of TEC from different stations, global forecast models need to be trained with global TEC maps.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Machine learning methods can achieve 2.9-4.7 TECU pre-diction accuracy during periods of high solar activity period; the GBDT approach results in a 5.6% improvement compared to other machine learning methods. Xia et al (2021) investigated the performance of encoder-decoder convolution long short-term memory (ED-ConvLSTM) for medium-term ionosphere prediction on a global scale based on IGS GIMs. In 2018, this approach achieved 2.04 TECU for a five-day model.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Xia, G., Zhang, F.,Wang, C., & Zhou, C. (2022). Ed-convlstm: A novel global ionospheric total electron content medium-term forecast model Yang, K., & Liu, Y.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%