Editorial: Earth-affecting Solar Transients

Zhang, J.; Blanco‐Cano, X.; Nitta, N.; Srivastava, Nandita; Mandrini, C. H.

doi:10.1007/s11207-018-1302-9

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The ISEST project has resulted in a Topic Issue in the journal of Solar Physics with a collection of 32 articles (Zhang et al 2018a); this collection is then converted to a published book (Zhang et al 2018b). A similar but earlier project in the CAWSES-II era, Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System of SCOSTEP (2010, is the project of "Short-term variability of the Sun-Earth system"; the summary of the activity from 2010-2014 is in Gopalswamy et al (2015c).…”

Section: Isest Projectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earth-affecting solar transients: a review of progresses in solar cycle 24

Zhang

Temmer

Gopalswamy

et al. 2021

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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This review article summarizes the advancement in the studies of Earth-affecting solar transients in the last decade that encompasses most of solar cycle 24. It is a part of the effort of the International Study of Earth-affecting Solar Transients (ISEST) project, sponsored by the SCOSTEP/VarSITI program (2014–2018). The Sun-Earth is an integrated physical system in which the space environment of the Earth sustains continuous influence from mass, magnetic field, and radiation energy output of the Sun in varying timescales from minutes to millennium. This article addresses short timescale events, from minutes to days that directly cause transient disturbances in the Earth’s space environment and generate intense adverse effects on advanced technological systems of human society. Such transient events largely fall into the following four types: (1) solar flares, (2) coronal mass ejections (CMEs) including their interplanetary counterparts ICMEs, (3) solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and (4) stream interaction regions (SIRs) including corotating interaction regions (CIRs). In the last decade, the unprecedented multi-viewpoint observations of the Sun from space, enabled by STEREO Ahead/Behind spacecraft in combination with a suite of observatories along the Sun-Earth lines, have provided much more accurate and global measurements of the size, speed, propagation direction, and morphology of CMEs in both 3D and over a large volume in the heliosphere. Many CMEs, fast ones, in particular, can be clearly characterized as a two-front (shock front plus ejecta front) and three-part (bright ejecta front, dark cavity, and bright core) structure. Drag-based kinematic models of CMEs are developed to interpret CME propagation in the heliosphere and are applied to predict their arrival times at 1 AU in an efficient manner. Several advanced MHD models have been developed to simulate realistic CME events from the initiation on the Sun until their arrival at 1 AU. Much progress has been made on detailed kinematic and dynamic behaviors of CMEs, including non-radial motion, rotation and deformation of CMEs, CME-CME interaction, and stealth CMEs and problematic ICMEs. The knowledge about SEPs has also been significantly improved. An outlook of how to address critical issues related to Earth-affecting solar transients concludes this article.

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Section: Isest Projectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earth-affecting solar transients: a review of progresses in solar cycle 24

Zhang

Temmer

Gopalswamy

et al. 2021

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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“…Webb and Howard 2012. They produce significant perturbations in the solar wind and can strongly influence the geomagnetic environment conditions, a.k.a space weather, see e.g. Bothmer and Daglis (2007) and Zhang et al (2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of a long-duration AR throughout five solar rotations: Magnetic properties and ejective events

Iglesias

Cremades

Merenda

et al. 2020

Advances in Space Research

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Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are among the most magnificent solar eruptions, are a major driver of space weather and can thus affect diverse human technologies. Different processes have been proposed to explain the initiation and release of CMEs from solar active regions (ARs), without reaching consensus on which is the predominant scenario, and thus rendering impossible to accurately predict when a CME is going to erupt from a given AR. To investigate AR magnetic properties that favor CMEs production, we employ multi-spacecraft data to analyze a long duration AR (NOAA 11089, 11100, 11106, 11112 and 11121) throughout its complete lifetime, spanning five Carrington rotations from July to November 2010. We use data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory to study the evolution of the AR magnetic properties during the five near-side passages, and a proxy to follow the magnetic flux changes when no magnetograms are available, i.e. during farside transits. The ejectivity is studied by characterizing the angular widths, speeds and masses of 108 CMEs that we associated to the AR, when examining a 124-day period. Such an ejectivity tracking was possible thanks to the mulit-viewpoint images provided by the Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in a quasi-quadrature configuration. We also inspected the X-ray flares registered by the GOES satellite and found 162 to be associated to the AR under study. Given the substantial number of ejections studied, we use a statistical approach instead of a single-event analysis. We found three well defined periods of very high CMEs activity and two periods with no mass ejections that are preceded or accompanied by characteristic changes in the AR magnetic flux, free magnetic energy and/or presence of electric currents. Our large sample of CMEs and long term study of a single AR, provide further evidence relating AR magnetic activity to CME and Flare production.

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“…One of the difficulties in predicting the "events" -i.e., the storm-time K p values -is that these are typically driven by solar wind transients , which include interplanetary CMEs and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) (see, e.g., Kilpua et al, 2009;Zhang et al, 2018), with the largest storms driven by CMEs (Borovsky and Denton, 2006). The in-situ solar wind measurements from an L1 monitor do not convey the information required to predict the occurrence of these transients for a 3-hour-ahead prediction of K p , or for longer prediction horizons.…”

Section: Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic prediction of geomagnetic storms and theK_pindex

Chakraborty

Morley

2020

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index Kp in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic Kp predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3–hour-ahead Kp prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (Kp>5-) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

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Editorial: Earth-affecting Solar Transients

Cited by 6 publications

References 35 publications

Earth-affecting solar transients: a review of progresses in solar cycle 24

Earth-affecting solar transients: a review of progresses in solar cycle 24

Analysis of a long-duration AR throughout five solar rotations: Magnetic properties and ejective events

Probabilistic prediction of geomagnetic storms and theK_pindex

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Editorial: Earth-affecting Solar Transients

Cited by 6 publications

References 35 publications

Earth-affecting solar transients: a review of progresses in solar cycle 24

Earth-affecting solar transients: a review of progresses in solar cycle 24

Analysis of a long-duration AR throughout five solar rotations: Magnetic properties and ejective events

Probabilistic prediction of geomagnetic storms and theKpindex

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Resources

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Probabilistic prediction of geomagnetic storms and theK_pindex