Editorial: Modeling of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases: Mathematical, statistical and biophysical analysis of spread patterns

Deeb, Omar El; Hattaf, Khalid; Kharroubi, Samer A.

doi:10.3389/fams.2023.1178479

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 11 publications

(9 reference statements)

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“…By modeling interventions like social distancing, quarantines, and the closure of public spaces, researchers can assess the effectiveness of various strategies in slowing down the spread of the disease. Adjusting parameters, such as contact rates between individuals, based on the severity and duration of lockdown measures, allows for the simulation of different scenarios and predictions about their influence on the epidemic's course [10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. Additionally, SIR models are employed to analyze the effects of vaccination on disease dynamics.…”

Section: The First Compartmental Model Used Was the Sir Model Created...mentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID19 vaccines as boosters or first doses: Simulating scenarios to minimize infections and deaths

El Deeb,

El Khoury Edde

2024

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Public health authorities face the issue of optimal vaccine distribution during spread of pandemics. In this paper, we study the optimal way to distribute a finite stock of COVID-19 doses between first or second doses for unvaccinated individuals and third doses (booster shots) for fully vaccinated individuals. We introduce a novel compartmental model that accommodates for vaccinated populations. This Booster model is implemented to simulate two prototypes of populations: one with a highly infected and highly vaccinated proportion, and another with a low infected and vaccinated percentage. We namely use sample data from Russia and Djibouti respectively. Our findings show that, to minimize the deaths for the first type of populations, around one quarter of the vaccines should be employed as booster shots and the rest as first and second doses. On the other hand, the second type of populations can minimize their number of deaths by mainly focusing on administering the initial two doses, rather than giving any booster shots. The novel Booster model allows us to study the effect of the third dose on a community and provides a useful tool to draw public policies on the distribution of vaccines during pandemics.

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Section: The First Compartmental Model Used Was the Sir Model Created...mentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID19 vaccines as boosters or first doses: Simulating scenarios to minimize infections and deaths

El Deeb,

El Khoury Edde

2024

Preprint

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“…The transmission dynamics of infectious diseases have undergone comprehensive studies through the application of the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model, initially introduced by Kermack and McKendrick [17], and its subsequent refinements and adaptations. Over the years, this model has been employed to analyze a spectrum of diseases, ranging from historical pandemics such as the Spanish flu to endemic illnesses like Cholera, Malaria, and Pneumonia, as well as contemporary challenges like the seasonal flu and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic [18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26]. The versatility of these compartmental models has been demonstrated in their ability to effectively simulate and predict the trajectories of disease spread, accounting for variables such as mitigation measures, sanitation practices, social distancing initiatives, and vaccination campaigns.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Impact of Segregation and Integration on Infection Dynamics: Analysis of a Cholera Model in a Two-Population System

El Deeb,

Matar

2024

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We present a novel dynamic model designed to depict Cholera outbreaks within a two-population framework featuring two environmental reservoirs. The model is designed to emulate the impact of segregation or integration between two populations on the transmission of the disease and infections throughout the entire community, both with and without non-medicinal interventions. This is achieved by allowing infectious individuals to interact with the reservoir of the alternate population at different levels of suppression, in addition to their regular interaction with their own reservoir. We find out that increased suppression of cross community interaction reduces the number of infections in the overall population as well as in the population with less contamination and contact. Additionally, we predict significant delays in the occurrence of peak infections, affording public health authorities crucial time for intervention. Lowering cross-immunity interactions also leads to a decrease in bacterial concentrations in environmental reservoirs. Finally, we demonstrate that non-medicinal interventions, including sanitation and water purification, would significantly reduce and delay infections, providing a valuable time frame for implementing additional medicinal measures.

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Editorial: Modeling of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases: Mathematical, statistical and biophysical analysis of spread patterns

Abstract: Modeling of COVID-and other infectious diseases: Mathematical, statistical and biophysical analysis of spread patterns.

Cited by 2 publications

References 11 publications

COVID19 vaccines as boosters or first doses: Simulating scenarios to minimize infections and deaths

COVID19 vaccines as boosters or first doses: Simulating scenarios to minimize infections and deaths

Investigating the Impact of Segregation and Integration on Infection Dynamics: Analysis of a Cholera Model in a Two-Population System

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