OBJECTIVE -The aim of this study was to define the incidence of type 2 diabetes in a low-risk Caucasian population in northern Spain and its association with various risk factors.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS -The AsturiasStudy is a prospective, population-based survey of diabetes and cardiovascular risk factors. The baseline examination was carried out during 1998 -1999 when 1,034 individuals, aged 30 -75 years, were randomly selected to determine the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes in the Principality of Asturias (northern Spain). In 2004 -2005, these same subjects were invited for a follow-up examination; 700 participated. This study includes only those individuals who did not have diabetes at baseline. We used the World Health Organization 1999 criteria to classify glucose metabolism at both baseline and follow-up.RESULTS -The incidence of diabetes adjusted for the age and sex structure of Asturias was 10.8 cases/1,000 person-years (95% CI 8.1-14.8). The incidence rates were 5 cases/1,000 person-years in individuals with normoglycemia, 21 cases/1,000 person-years in individuals with isolated impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), 34.7 cases/1,000 person-years in individuals with isolated impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and 95.2 cases/1,000 person-years in individuals with combined IFG-IGT. Stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis showed that, together with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-h plasma glucose, which were the strongest predictors of diabetes, triglycerides and BMI were also independently associated with progression to diabetes.CONCLUSIONS -In this 6-year prospective population-based study, we found an incidence of type 2 diabetes of 10.8 cases/1,000 person-years. Both FPG and 2-h plasma glucose were strongly predictive of diabetes, and their effect was additive.
Diabetes Care 30:2258-2263, 2007T ype 2 diabetes is currently one of the most costly and worrying chronic diseases and represents a serious health care problem worldwide. The number of individuals with diabetes is increasing alarmingly owing to the aging of the population, obesity, and lack of exercise. Estimates indicate that by the year 2030 diabetes will affect 366 million people worldwide (1). In practically all societies, diabetes has become a leading cause of blindness, renal failure, lower limb amputation, and cardiovascular disease. The increased prevalence of diabetes has led to an increasing number of disabled individuals, a decrease in life expectancy, and huge health care costs (2). In Spain, too, the situation is a cause for concern, and recent cross-sectional studies indicated an increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes that does not appear to be due to changes in the criteria for diabetes (3-13). Therefore, interest in identifying individuals at high risk of developing diabetes and in planning preventive strategies has increased considerably because several studies have demonstrated that diabetes can be prevented with changes in lifestyle and/or use of drugs (14 -18).The incidence of diabetes is strong...