Effect Analysis of Climate Change on the Reproduction of Mosquitoes and Infection Rate Sensitivity for SI/SIR Epidemical Model in the Case of Malaria Disease

Review of Importance of Weather and Environmental Variables in Agent-Based Arbovirus Models

“…From Table A1 , six studies were conducted in an African context, while twelve studies were from other continents, one study covered a global context, and one study was carried out in a virtual environment. Six studies have either modeled malaria using ABM or have incorporated climatic or environmental factors when modeling malaria [ 59 , 62 , 63 , 64 , 65 , 66 , 67 , 68 ]. Studies included in the review have satisfied the stated inclusion criteria and have either used ABM or included the component of climatic or environmental variables and their influence on infectious disease transmission.…”

“…Humidity (relative or absolute) was used as an indicator in several studies and most of these studies found a positive association with arbovirus disease incidences [ 14 , 24 , 25 , 32 , 63 , 65 , 69 , 70 , 73 , 76 ]. Refs.…”

“…A study from Rwanda on malaria by Ingabire and Kimura [ 63 ] showed that a decrease in humidity caused the number of malaria patients to decrease, while an increase in humidity led to an increase in the number of patients showing a correlation between humidity and infection rates of Anopheles gambiae . When the model was simulated using real climate data, humidity change caused the number of mosquitoes and the number of patients to change exponentially suggesting that humidity had a large impact on the mosquito increase and malaria patient increase [ 63 ]. A 60% monthly value of relative humidity provided suitable conditions for malaria diffusion [ 65 ].…”

“…Based on the search strategies and criteria used, most of the literature obtained demonstrated the following key issues. Through the review, it has been identified that ABM in Africa is mostly implemented for other diseases such as malaria, Ebola, rift valley fever, west Nile virus, tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus, and other dominant diseases rather than dengue disease [ 62 , 63 , 64 , 65 , 66 , 67 , 68 ]. This shows that there is a lack of sufficient literature on ABM for dengue disease in Africa and thus points to a need for further research on dengue and ABM and simulation in the African context.…”

“… 4. Ingabire and Kimura [ 63 ], Journal Article, Malaria ( Anopheles gambaie ). Temperature (minimum 10 °C and maximum 29 °C), humidity (30–97%), rainfall.…”