Effect of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Climate and Land Carbon Storage in CMIP5 Projections for the Twenty-First Century

Brovkin, Victor; Boysen, Lena; Arora, Vivek K.; Boisier, Juan Pablo; Cadule, Patricia; Chini, L. P.; Claußen, Martin; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gayler, Veronika; Hurk, Bart van den; Hurtt, George C.; Jones, Chris D.; Kato, Etsushi; Noblet‐Ducoudré, Nathalie de; Pacifico, Federica; Pongratz, Julia; Weiss, M.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00623.1

Cited by 349 publications

(402 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…Current estimates of the net LULCC carbon flux between 1850 and 2000 are between 108 and 188 PgC (Houghton, 2010), while here we estimate 131 PgC. Estimates from this study using the future scenarios analyzed in the IPCC (the Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP, scenarios) suggest between 20 and 210 PgC carbon will be released, consistent with Strassmann et al (2008), and at the higher end of the model range reported by Brovkin et al (2013). Our model underpredicts the uptake of land carbon relative to other models (e.g Arora et al, 2013), and unlike other estimates includes the explicit interplay between changes in land use and fires (e.g., Marlon et al, 2008;Kloster et al, 2010).…”

Section: Enhancement Of Land Use Co 2 Radiative Forcingsupporting

confidence: 77%

Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

2014

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Abstract. Pressure on land resources is expected to increase as global population continues to climb and the world becomes more affluent, swelling the demand for food. Changing climate may exert additional pressures on natural lands as present-day productive regions may shift, or soil quality may degrade, and the recent rise in demand for biofuels increases competition with edible crops for arable land. Given these projected trends there is a need to understand the global climate impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Here we quantify the climate impacts of global LULCC in terms of modifications to the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere (radiative forcing, RF) that are caused by changes in long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects, and land surface albedo. We attribute historical changes in terrestrial carbon storage, global fire emissions, secondary organic aerosol emissions, and surface albedo to LULCC using simulations with the Community Land Model version 3.5. These LULCC emissions are combined with estimates of agricultural emissions of important trace gases and mineral dust in two sets of Community Atmosphere Model simulations to calculate the RF of changes in atmospheric chemistry and aerosol concentrations attributed to LULCC. With all forcing agents considered together, we show that 40 % (±16 %) of the present-day anthropogenic RF can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC RF by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the LULCC RF from CO 2 alone. This enhancement factor also applies to projected LULCC RF, which we compute for four future scenarios associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways. We attribute total RFs between 0.9 and 1.9 W m −2 to LULCC for the year 2100 (relative to a preindustrial state). To place an upper bound on the potential of LULCC to alter the global radiation budget, we include a fifth scenario in which all arable land is cultivated by 2100. This theoretical extreme case leads to a LULCC RF of 3.9 W m −2 (±0.9 W m −2 ), suggesting that not only energy policy but also land policy is necessary to minimize future increases in RF and associated climate changes.

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Section: Enhancement Of Land Use Co 2 Radiative Forcingsupporting

confidence: 77%

Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

2014

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“…Previous studies considering amplification from indirect land use effects have focused on impacts through 2100 [e.g., Gitz and Ciais, 2003], and most CMIP5 carbon cycle analysis has focused on this time span [e.g., Arora et al, 2013;Brovkin et al, 2013;Jones et al, 2013]. Here we show that an additional~35% enhancement of the indirect effect of LULCC (Figure 4b; blue line versus black line) occurs when considering the changes in Figure 4.…”

Section: 1002/2016gb005374mentioning

confidence: 57%

“…In addition to the effects of deforestation and harvesting on CO 2 emissions, LULCC also changes the surface albedo and biophysical properties of the land surface [e.g., Feddema et al, 2005;Jackson et al, 2008;Bonan, 2008;DeNoblet-Ducoudre et al, 2012;Brovkin et al, 2013;Myhre et al, 2013], increases emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, and alters aerosol emissions [e.g., Foley et al, 2005;Heald and Spracken, 2015;Unger, 2014;Ward et al, 2014].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks

Mahowald

Randerson

Lindsay

et al. 2017

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

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Using the Community Earth System Model, we explore the role of human land use and land cover change (LULCC) in modifying the terrestrial carbon budget in simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, extended to year 2300. Overall, conversion of land (e.g., from forest to croplands via deforestation) results in a model-estimated, cumulative carbon loss of 490 Pg C between 1850 and 2300, larger than the 230 Pg C loss of carbon caused by climate change over this same interval. The LULCC carbon loss is a combination of a direct loss at the time of conversion and an indirect loss from the reduction of potential terrestrial carbon sinks. Approximately 40% of the carbon loss associated with LULCC in the simulations arises from direct human modification of the land surface; the remaining 60% is an indirect consequence of the loss of potential natural carbon sinks. Because of the multicentury carbon cycle legacy of current land use decisions, a globally averaged amplification factor of 2.6 must be applied to 2015 land use carbon losses to adjust for indirect effects. This estimate is 30% higher when considering the carbon cycle evolution after 2100. Most of the terrestrial uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the model occurs from the influence of rising atmospheric CO 2 on photosynthesis in trees, and thus, model-projected carbon feedbacks are especially sensitive to deforestation.

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“…Furthermore, aboveground (ag) biomass (Wandelli and Fearnside, 2015), percentage vegetation cover (Lesschen et al, 2008), biodiversity (Vellend, 2004), species composition (Aide et al, 2000) and structure (Bellemare et al, 2002) remained affected for years to decades, or even longer. These effects have consequences, not only for the C sink capacity of the ecosystem but also for water and energy exchange between the land and the atmosphere (Foley et al, 2003), which also has important, albeit still highly uncertain, implications for regional climate change (e.g., Arora and Montenegro, 2011;Brovkin et al, 2013;de NobletDucoudre et al, 2012). Some studies have detected an influence of ancient agriculture on forest composition and diversity even thousands of years later (Dambrine et al, 2007;Dupouey et al, 2002;Willis et al, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of land-use history on the recovery of ecosystems after agricultural abandonment

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Land-use changes have been shown to have large effects on climate and biogeochemical cycles, but so far most studies have focused on the effects of conversion of natural vegetation to croplands and pastures. By contrast, relatively little is known about the long-term influence of past agriculture on vegetation regrowth and carbon sequestration following land abandonment. We used the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model to study the legacy effects of different land-use histories (in terms of type and duration) across a range of ecosystems. To this end, we performed six idealized simulations for Europe and Africa in which we made a transition from natural vegetation to either pasture or cropland, followed by a transition back to natural vegetation after 20, 60 or 100 years. The simulations identified substantial differences in recovery trajectories of four key variables (vegetation composition, vegetation carbon, soil carbon, net biome productivity) after agricultural cessation. Vegetation carbon and composition typically recovered faster than soil carbon in subtropical, temperate and boreal regions, and vice versa in the tropics. While the effects of different land-use histories on recovery periods of soil carbon stocks often differed by centuries across our simulations, differences in recovery times across simulations were typically small for net biome productivity (a few decades) and modest for vegetation carbon and composition (several decades). Spatially, we found the greatest sensitivity of recovery times to prior land use in boreal forests and subtropical grasslands, where post-agricultural productivity was strongly affected by prior land management. Our results suggest that land-use history is a relevant factor affecting ecosystems long after agricultural cessation, and it should be considered not only when assessing historical or future changes in simulations of the terrestrial carbon cycle but also when establishing long-term monitoring networks and interpreting data derived therefrom, including analysis of a broad range of ecosystem properties or local climate effects related to land cover changes.

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Effect of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Climate and Land Carbon Storage in CMIP5 Projections for the Twenty-First Century

Cited by 349 publications

References 77 publications

Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks

Impacts of land-use history on the recovery of ecosystems after agricultural abandonment

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