Rationale: There are no risk stratification tools for morbidity and mortality in bronchiectasis. Identifying patients at risk of exacerbations, hospital admissions, and mortality is vital for future research.Objectives: This study describes the derivation and validation of the Bronchiectasis Severity Index (BSI).Methods: Derivation of the BSI used data from a prospective cohort study (Edinburgh, UK, 2008 enrolling 608 patients. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to identify independent predictors of mortality and hospitalization over 4-year follow-up. The score was validated in independent cohorts from Dundee, UK (n = 218); Leuven, Belgium (n = 253); Monza, Italy (n = 105); and Newcastle, UK (n = 126).Measurements and Main Results: Independent predictors of future hospitalization were prior hospital admissions, Medical Research Council dyspnea score greater than or equal to 4, FEV 1 , 30% predicted, Pseudomonas aeruginosa colonization, colonization with other pathogenic organisms, and three or more lobes involved on high-resolution computed tomography. Independent predictors of mortality were older age, low FEV 1 , lower body mass index, prior hospitalization, and three or more exacerbations in the year before the study. The derived BSI predicted mortality and hospitalization: area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.86) for mortality and AUC 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.91) for hospitalization, respectively.There was a clear difference in exacerbation frequency and quality of life using the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire between patients classified as low, intermediate, and high risk by the score (P , 0.0001 for all comparisons). In the validation cohorts, the AUC for mortality ranged from 0.81 to 0.84 and for hospitalization from 0.80 to 0.88.
Conclusions:The BSI is a useful clinical predictive tool that identifies patients at risk of future mortality, hospitalization, and exacerbations across healthcare systems.