Background
The increasing prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) represents a public health issue. Identifying new predictors of AF is therefore necessary to plan preventive strategies. We investigated whether left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction by global longitudinal strain (GLS), a predictor of cardiovascular events, may predict new-onset AF in a population setting.
Methods and Results
Participants (n=675, mean age 71±9 years, 60% women) in sinus rhythm from the population-based Northern Manhattan Study underwent two- and three-dimensional echocardiography as part of the Cardiac Abnormalities and Brain Lesions (CABL) study. LV systolic function was assessed by LV ejection fraction (LVEF) and speckle-tracking GLS. Over a mean follow-up of 63.6±18.7 months, 32 (4.7%) new confirmed cases of AF occurred. Lower GLS [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)/unit decrease=1.22, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.04-1.43, p=0.015] and increased left atrial volume index (LAVi) (aHR/unit increase=1.12, 95% CI=1.07-1.17, p<0.001) were significantly associated with incident AF, whereas LVEF was not (p=0.176). GLS>-14.7% was associated with risk of new-onset AF with an aHR=3.2 (95% CI=1.4-7.5, p=0.007). The coexistence of abnormal GLS/abnormal LAVi was associated with a 28.6% incidence of AF (aHR=12.1, 95% CI=3.3-44.8, p<0.001) compared to participants with normal GLS/normal LAVi (AF incidence=2.0%). AF incidence was intermediate in those with either abnormal GLS or abnormal LAVi (9.3% and 11.1%, respectively). GLS prognostic value for incident AF was incremental over risk factors and LAVi.
Conclusions
LV systolic dysfunction by GLS was a powerful and independent predictor of incident AF. GLS assessment may improve AF risk stratification in addition to established parameters.