Effect of climate change and deforestation on vector borne diseases in the North-Eastern Indian State of Mizoram bordering Myanmar

Balasubramani, K.; Sarma, Devojit Kumar; Lalmalsawma, Pachuau; Pautu, Lalfakzuala; Karmodiya, Krishanpal; Nina, Praveen Balabaskaran

doi:10.1016/j.joclim.2021.100015

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Rapid urbanization has resulted in intense population growth (~200%) in Bhopal during the last 3 decades [ 85 ], and could be an important contributing factor for the increase in the monthly and annual mean temperature. In Bhopal, during the study period (2012–2019), the overall annual maximum, minimum, and mean temperature have increased by 0.1°C (Test S = 10, α = 0.1), and is in line with earlier findings from Bhopal [ 87 ] and Mizoram [ 88 ]. The increase in built-up areas, along with the increase in monthly and annual mean temperature will provide suitable breeding habitats for Ae .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

An assessment of remotely sensed environmental variables on Dengue epidemiology in Central India

Sarma¹,

Kumar²,

Nina

et al. 2022

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

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In recent decades, dengue has been expanding rapidly in the tropical cities. Even though environmental factors and landscape features profoundly impact dengue vector abundance and disease epidemiology, significant gaps exist in understanding the role of local environmental heterogeneity on dengue epidemiology in India. In this study, we assessed the role of remotely sensed climatic factors (rainfall, temperature and humidity) and landscape variables (land use pattern, vegetation and built up density) on dengue incidence (2012–2019) in Bhopal city, Central India. Dengue hotspots in the city were assessed through geographical information system based spatial statistics. Dengue incidence increased from 0.59 cases in 2012 to 9.11 cases in 2019 per 10,000 inhabitants, and wards located in Southern Bhopal were found to be dengue hotspots. Distributed lag non-linear model combined with quasi Poisson regression was used to assess the exposure-response association, relative risk (RR), and delayed effects of environmental factors on dengue incidence. The analysis revealed a non-linear relationship between meteorological variables and dengue cases. The model shows that the risk of dengue cases increases with increasing mean temperature, rainfall and absolute humidity. The highest RR of dengue cases (~2.0) was observed for absolute humidity ≥60 g/m3 with a 5–15 week lag. Rapid urbanization assessed by an increase in the built-up area (a 9.1% increase in 2020 compared to 2014) could also be a key factor driving dengue incidence in Bhopal city. The study sheds important insight into the synergistic effects of both the landscape and climatic factors on the transmission dynamics of dengue. Furthermore, the study provides key baseline information on the climatic variables that can be used in the micro-level dengue prediction models in Bhopal and other cities with similar climatic conditions.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

An assessment of remotely sensed environmental variables on Dengue epidemiology in Central India

Sarma¹,

Kumar²,

Nina

et al. 2022

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

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“…Our results from Section 4.2.2 on the association between LULCC and dengue outbreak are complementary with the existing literature showing the impact of deforestation on the outbreak of vector-borne dengue disease over Mizoram (North-east state of India) [ 56 ]. Vector replication is favored in deforested regions by interrupting the ecological balance [ 3 ].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 66%

Impact of Plantation Induced Forest Degradation on the Outbreak of Emerging Infectious Diseases—Wayanad District, Kerala, India

Saha

Ghatak

Muralee

2022

IJERPH

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The world has been facing a pandemic owing to COVID-19. We have also seen the geographic expansion and outbreaks of other emerging infectious diseases (EID) in recent years. This paper investigates the direct and indirect effects of land use land cover change (LULCC) on EID outbreaks in the context of Wayanad District of Kerala, India. Wayanad is in the vulnerable tropical forested region, and it is named as one of the four environmental change hotspots. The focus of this project is mainly three EIDs prevalent in this region: Kyasanur forest disease (KFD), Dengue and Leptospirosis. Our results, based on topographical map, remote sensing and extensive field work, show that the natural forest in Wayanad was replaced with agriculture and forest plantation during 1950–2018. This paper further suggests that encroachment of forest by forest plantation causes the human–animal conflict resulting in the outbreak of KFD cases. Our analysis reveals that a high number of Dengue cases is found in the forested regions of the district and over the adjacent human-made agriculture plantation areas. High and medium number of Leptospirosis cases contain a high portion of land area devoted to paddy cultivation and agricultural plantation. In summary, the results clearly show the linkage between the outbreak of above mentioned EIDs and LULCC in the context of Wayanad district, Kerala. We also discuss in detail the causal pathway involving human–environmental dynamics through which plantation leads to the outbreak of KFD. Replacing forests with plantations poses an alarming threat of disease outbreak in the community.

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“…As we move towards the East, the temperature and RH drops, and the altitude from the mean sea level increases, resulting in less favorable breeding conditions for mosquitoes and malaria transmission. Similar to Aizawl, Mizoram 30 , in CHT, the minimum temperature, RH and rainfall have shown a consistent upward trend in the last 4 decades, thus favoring mosquito breeding and malaria transmission. Multiple global climate models show an overall net increase in populations at risk and climate suitability for malaria 31 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 54%

Malaria hotspots and climate change trends in the hyper-endemic malaria settings of Mizoram along the India-Bangladesh borders

Lalmalsawma¹,

Balasubramani

James

et al. 2022

Preprint

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India has made tremendous progress in reducing mortality and morbidity in the last decade. Mizoram State in North-East India is one of the few malaria-endemic regions where malaria transmission has continued to remain high. As Mizoram shares international borders with Bangladesh and Myanmar, malaria control in this region is critical for malaria elimination efforts in all the three countries. For identifying hotspots for targeted intervention, malaria data from 388 public health sub-centers across Mizoram were analyzed in the Geographic Information System. Almost all the sub-centers reporting high Annual Parasite Index (> 10) are located in Mizoram’s districts that border Bangladesh. Getis-Ord Gi* statistic shows most of the sub-centers located along the Bangladesh border in the Lawngtlai and Lunglei districts to be the malaria hotspots. The hotspots also extended into the Mamit and Siaha districts, especially along the borders of Lawngtlai and Lunglei. Analysis of climatic and land use/Land cover datasets obtained from the Global Modelling and Assimilation Office and MODIS-Terra + Aqua satellite shows Mizoram’s western part (Lawngtlai, Lunglei and Mamit districts) to experience similar topographic and climatic conditions as the bordering Rangamati district in the Chittagong division of Bangladesh. Climatic trends in this region from 1981 to 2021, estimated by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates, show an increasing trend in minimum temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall, which could facilitate malaria transmission. A regional coordination and strategic plan is required to eliminate malaria from this hyper-endemic malaria region of North-East India.

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Effect of climate change and deforestation on vector borne diseases in the North-Eastern Indian State of Mizoram bordering Myanmar

Cited by 20 publications

References 51 publications

An assessment of remotely sensed environmental variables on Dengue epidemiology in Central India

An assessment of remotely sensed environmental variables on Dengue epidemiology in Central India

Impact of Plantation Induced Forest Degradation on the Outbreak of Emerging Infectious Diseases—Wayanad District, Kerala, India

Malaria hotspots and climate change trends in the hyper-endemic malaria settings of Mizoram along the India-Bangladesh borders

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