Effect of climate change on marine ecosystems

Williamson, Phillip; Guinder, Valeria A.

doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-822373-4.00024-0

Cited by 18 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 430 publications

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“…The effects on CBCEs of future warming (including marine heatwaves), sea level rise, increased storminess and ocean acidification have been assessed by IPCC (Bindoff et al, 2019;Cooley et al, 2022) and elsewhere (Macreadie et al, 2019;Lovelock and Reef, 2020;Williamson and Guinder, 2021). Overall effects are considered to be damaging, threatening the continued viability of such ecosystems (Bindoff et al, 2019).…”

Section: Vulnerability To Future Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon Removal Using Coastal Blue Carbon Ecosystems Is Uncertain and Unreliable, With Questionable Climatic Cost-Effectiveness

Williamson

Gattuso

2022

Front. Clim.

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Mangrove forests, seagrass meadows and tidal saltmarshes are vegetated coastal ecosystems that accumulate and store large quantities of carbon in their sediments. Many recent studies and reviews have favorably identified the potential for such coastal “blue carbon” ecosystems to provide a natural climate solution in two ways: by conservation, reducing the greenhouse gas emissions arising from the loss and degradation of such habitats, and by restoration, to increase carbon dioxide drawdown and its long-term storage. The focus here is on the latter, assessing the feasibility of achieving quantified and secure carbon removal (negative emissions) through the restoration of coastal vegetation. Seven issues that affect the reliability of carbon accounting for this approach are considered: high variability in carbon burial rates; errors in determining carbon burial rates; lateral carbon transport; fluxes of methane and nitrous oxide; carbonate formation and dissolution; vulnerability to future climate change; and vulnerability to non-climatic factors. Information on restoration costs is also reviewed, with the conclusion that costs are highly uncertain, with lower-range estimates unrealistic for wider application. CO2 removal using coastal blue carbon restoration therefore has questionable cost-effectiveness when considered only as a climate mitigation action, either for carbon-offsetting or for inclusion in Nationally Determined Contributions. Many important issues relating to the measurement of carbon fluxes and storage have yet to be resolved, affecting certification and resulting in potential over-crediting. The restoration of coastal blue carbon ecosystems is nevertheless highly advantageous for climate adaptation, coastal protection, food provision and biodiversity conservation. Such action can therefore be societally justified in very many circumstances, based on the multiple benefits that such habitats provide at the local scale.

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Section: Vulnerability To Future Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon Removal Using Coastal Blue Carbon Ecosystems Is Uncertain and Unreliable, With Questionable Climatic Cost-Effectiveness

Williamson

Gattuso

2022

Front. Clim.

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“…Climate change directly disturbs aqua species’ growth, reproduction, migration behavior, and distribution, as it induces fluctuations in physical, chemical, and biological factors [ 8 – 12 ]. Indirect impacts via ecosystems include changes in food abundance, competitors, predators, and pathogens [ 13 – 16 ]. Climate change leads to loss of catch revenues and profits of entrepreneurs and households in many areas, especially in countries with warm seas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in Vietnam

Nguyen

2022

PLoS ONE

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Fisheries are forecasted to shrink in the tropics due to climate change. In Vietnam, fisheries are a pro-poor economic sector and essential nutrition source; however, welfares of producers and consumers in the climate change context are not well understood. While most studies focus on the gains or losses of total products and revenues, this paper pays additional attention to the changes in surpluses of market players in the long run. A combination of the production function, demand and supply functions, and partial equilibrium analysis is employed to measure the production and welfare impacts based on time series data from 1976 to 2018 and a Vietnam household living standards survey in 2018. The results show that relative to the present, catch yield is likely to reduce 35%-45% by mid-century and 45%-80% by the end of the century. Consumers may lose their surplus of 7-9 billion USD (PPP, 2018) by 2035 and 10-18 billion USD by 2065 due to supply reduction, while producers may gain additional profit of 3.5-4.5 billion USD by 2035 and 5-9 billion USD by 2065 owing to a price increase. The research findings suggest that Vietnam could impose measures to limit capture effort, as set out in the Law of Fisheries 2017, without harming fisher welfare. The expansion of aquaculture could reduce the gap between supply and demand of wild fish to mitigate consumer welfare loss; however, this impact is still ambiguous.

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“…Trends of the TOC transports under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were estimated with the assumption of steady biological activity (constant organic carbon concentrations), which is a limit in the present study. Since the differences in organic carbon concentrations between the nearshore and the open ocean will unlikely be reversed under future warming scenarios, but might be enlarged because of the projected increase of the biological production over the mid‐latitude continental shelves (Williamson & Guinder, 2021). The increase of TOC transports due to the flow change is unlikely reversed by the assumption of steady biological activity, with uncertainty in the magnitude of the estimated trends inevitably.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cross‐Shelf Carbon Transport in the East China Sea and Its Future Trend Under Global Warming

Hao,

Yuan,

et al. 2024

JGR Oceans

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The cross‐shelf carbon transports across a section along the 100 m isobath from Taiwan to Cheju are estimated based on carbon concentration observations and ocean currents simulated by a regionally zoomed ocean‐atmosphere coupled model. Results show that the net cross‐shelf particulate organic carbon, dissolved organic carbon, and dissolved inorganic carbon transports are in the offshore direction at 1.81 ± 0.22, 51.8 ± 2.85, and 783 ± 58.9 TgC yr−1, respectively, which are high in spring and summer and low in winter and fall following the seasonality of the offshore volume transport. The carbon is transported into the East China Sea (ECS) mainly by the Taiwan Warm Current and the Yellow Sea Warm Current, whereas they are carried out of the ECS mainly by the East China Sea Current extension and the recirculation north of Taiwan. Assuming steady biological activity, future net total organic carbon transports are projected to increase by 5%∼19% offshore at the end of the 21st century, with the maximum increase in winter, in a high greenhouse gas emission scenario of RCP8.5. The increased carbon transports are due to the increased offshore volume transport, transferring more carbon‐rich coastal water away from the shelf in the warming future than at present. The results quantify cross‐shelf carbon burial in the ECS in the background of global warming.

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Effect of climate change on marine ecosystems

Cited by 18 publications

References 430 publications

Carbon Removal Using Coastal Blue Carbon Ecosystems Is Uncertain and Unreliable, With Questionable Climatic Cost-Effectiveness

Carbon Removal Using Coastal Blue Carbon Ecosystems Is Uncertain and Unreliable, With Questionable Climatic Cost-Effectiveness

Welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in Vietnam

Cross‐Shelf Carbon Transport in the East China Sea and Its Future Trend Under Global Warming

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