Effect of Climate Variability on Crop Income in Central Ethiopia

Abstract

Ethiopian agriculture is a vulnerable sector from effects of climate variability. This study identified how strong is the effect of climate variability on smallholders’ crop income in Central highlands and Arssi grain plough farming systems of the country. The unbalanced panel data (1994-2014) of the study collected for eight rounds analysed through fixed effect regression. The model result shows that successive increment of crop season rainfall keeping the temperature constant has negative and significant effect on households’ crop income in the study area. The crop income responds similarly for temperature increment if the rainfall remains constant. Given this, simultaneous increment of the two climate related inputs has positive and significant effect on crop income. Other variables like flood, frost, storm, and rainfall inconsistency in the onset and cessation time affected households’ crop income negatively and significantly. Similarly, draught power and human labour, which are critical inputs in the crop production of Ethiopian smallholders, have positive and significant effect on crop income as to the model result. Thus, this study recommended that there should be supplementing the rainfall through irrigation, check dam and other activities to have consistent water supply for the crop production that enable smallholders to collect better income. Additionally, negative effect of temperature increment should be curved through adopting long lasting strategies like afforestation.

Interdependence of rural household welfare measurement in the context of climate variability in Ethiopia

“…This finding is consistent with studies conducted by Ref. [ 60 ], which discovered that higher temperatures have a negative effect on rural agriculture yields and revenue. According to studies [ [60] , [61] , [62] , [63] ], despite crop kinds and agroecological zones, mean temperature has a detrimental impact on crop output.…”

“…The market shock indirectly affects poverty, food security, and household prices during shocks. It is also similar to academic discourse [ [57] , [58] , [59] , [60] ].…”

“…[ 60 ], which discovered that higher temperatures have a negative effect on rural agriculture yields and revenue. According to studies [ [60] , [61] , [62] , [63] ], despite crop kinds and agroecological zones, mean temperature has a detrimental impact on crop output. At the one percent significance level, rainfall has a significant positive link with unidimensional and multidimensional poverty and food security at the ten percent level.…”

“…Better management of assets in land preparation, planting, and harvesting processes can increase food production and reduce the likelihood of poverty during climate shocks. According to the results of [ 60 , 78 , 79 ], vulnerable households use the asset for consumption smoothing, which enhances food security. The likelihood of multidimensional poverty positively correlates with the quality of a household's farm assets, and poor households are more likely to have superior farm assets.…”

“…The absence of useful data on early warnings, the adoption of technology, and coping strategies for food insecurity, as mentioned by Refs. [ 8 , 60 , 86 ], may be other factors.…”