Effect of Crude Oil Prices and Production on the Performance of Nigerian Gross Domestic Product: A Conceptual Framework

Sami, Sule-Iko Sadeeq Sani; Taiwo, Murtala

doi:10.4236/jhrss.2023.113038

Cited by 3 publications

References 29 publications

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Effects of Financial Inclusion and Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria: The Role of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)

Nwokike,

Udeoba,,

Udegbunam

2024

Preprint

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Effects of Financial Inclusion and Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria: The Role of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)

Nwokike,

Udeoba,,

Udegbunam

2024

Preprint

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Trend-Fourier Time Series Regression Model for Secular-Cyclical Datasets

S. O.,

A. I.,

T. O.

2024

African Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies

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The study proposed a Trend-Fourier Regression (TFR) model to handle time series datasets with simultaneous trend and cyclical variations. The model steps involve identification, estimation, diagnosis and forecasting. The Nigerian monthly Crude Oil Price (NMCOP) was used to implement the model and NMCOP was identified as trend-cyclical. The model estimation using Ordinary Least Squares method indicates that an increase in time will result in changes in NMCOP. Durbin-Watson statistics, histogram and autocorrelation function of residual plots were used to diagnose and specify the model to be stable. The coefficient of determination (R^2) indicates that over 80% of dependent variable variations were explained, with an adjusted (R^2) indicating a predictive ability exceeding 80%. The model efficiency was confirmed through out-sample and forecast evaluations, revealing superiority due to its smaller MAE, RMSE, and MAPE values, indicating minimal error. Conclusively, the TFR model is suitable for datasets that exhibit trend-cyclical variations simultaneously.

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Evaluating the Correlation between Specific Macroeconomic Performance and the Price of Crude Oil in Nigeria

Musa,

Salisu,

Magaji

2024

JEIME

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The study examines the relationship between oil price shocks and some selected Nigeria’s Macroeconomic variables by utilizing quarterly data for the period of 1980-2022 using a time frame of 46 years. The selected macroeconomic variables are Real Growth Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index and Real Exchange Rate. VECM was used as a technique for analysis, the results obtained from the estimation of the VECM model showed that there are long-run interdependences of oil price shocks that have a significant impact on Real Growth Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index and Real Exchange Rate in Nigeria. The study concluded, that the major source of revenue and foreign earnings to the economy is mainly from the sales of crude oil, as the economy is entirely dependent on the level of global oil prices, as such most of the macroeconomic indicators of the economy are directly or indirectly being affected by the oil price fluctuation in the economy, the study therefore Recommended that, since Nigeria doesn’t have control of oil prices, it is required that government diversify the economy to reduce the adverse effect of shocks emanating from the fluctuation of global oil prices, the country should diversify its export from oil exports to non-oil export Diversification of the economy is necessary to reduce the consequences of external shocks. The diversification of the oil revenue base would be a means of minimizing reliance on crude oil and petroleum products.

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Effect of Crude Oil Prices and Production on the Performance of Nigerian Gross Domestic Product: A Conceptual Framework

Cited by 3 publications

References 29 publications

Effects of Financial Inclusion and Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria: The Role of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)

Effects of Financial Inclusion and Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria: The Role of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)

Trend-Fourier Time Series Regression Model for Secular-Cyclical Datasets

Evaluating the Correlation between Specific Macroeconomic Performance and the Price of Crude Oil in Nigeria

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