Effect of different inspection strategies on the reliability of Daniels systems subjected to fatigue

Schneider, Ronald; Thöns, Sebastian; Rücker, Werner; Straub, Daniel

doi:10.1201/b16387-381

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…All fatigue hotspots are modeled with the same probabilistic models, which are shown in Table 3. B ΔS and B SIF are assumed fully correlated between components following [21]. The other random variables are assumed to have a correlation coefficient of 0.8 [21].…”

Section: Fatigue Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Utilization of Digital Twins and Other Numerical Relatives for Efficient Monte Carlo Simulation in Structural Analysis

Leira¹,

Agusta²,

Thöns³

2019

Theory, Application, and Implementation of Monte Carlo Method in Science and Technology

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Analysis of structures will in general involve large and complex numerical models, which require extensive computation efforts. These models are frequently referred to as digital twins. This analysis becomes particularly cumbersome for cases where a large number of response calculations are repeatedly performed, such as in the case of Monte Carlo simulation. One way of avoiding this will be to introduce simplified numerical models, which are no longer twins but some kind of more distant numerical relative. As an example of such a simplified numerical representation, a so-called response surface model can be applied in order to overcome the excessive computational efforts. Such models are also sometimes referred to as meta-models or cyber-physical models. One possible approach is to use a response surface model based on first-or second-order polynomials as approximating functions, with the function parameters being determined based on multivariate regression analysis techniques. In this chapter, various types of approximate models are first discussed in connection with a simplistic example. The application of response surface techniques is subsequently illustrated for a quite complex physicsbased structural model for an offshore jacket structure in combination with Monte Carlo simulation techniques.

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Section: Fatigue Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Utilization of Digital Twins and Other Numerical Relatives for Efficient Monte Carlo Simulation in Structural Analysis

Leira¹,

Agusta²,

Thöns³

2019

Theory, Application, and Implementation of Monte Carlo Method in Science and Technology

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“…The posterior system failure probability Pr( | 0: ) is then computed using Equation 21. Alternatively, the conditional probability Pr( | 0: ) = Pr( | ,0: ) can be estimated directly with a new subset simulation run following the estimation of Pr( ,0: ) (see also Schneider et al 2013;Straub et al 2016). For this purpose, a set of nested intermediate events…”

Section: Computing System Failure Probabilities With Subset Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability analysis and updating of deteriorating systems with subset simulation

2017

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“…The modeling error ε S and geometry error ε Y factors of various fatigue-sensitive details are correlated. The results obtained are based on a correlation model suggested by Moan and Song (2000) and Schneider et al (2013). The inspection is applied to the deck fatiguesensitive detail at t = 4 years assuming that no crack is detected using MPI.…”

Section: Fatigue Reliability and Riskranking Updatingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporation of risk and updating in inspection of fatigue-sensitive details of ship structures

Dong

Frangopol

2016

International Journal of Fatigue

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Fatigue cracks, as a structural deterioration mechanism, may lead to unanticipated out of serviceof naval ships. Consequently, risk assessment andeffective inspection planning of naval ships under fatigue damage are needed to achieve economic and sustainableperformance of these structures.This paper presents a probabilistic framework for fatigue risk assessment and updating through inspection events. The computation associated with fatigue damage is performed using fracture mechanics and uncertainties are considered within this process.Furthermore, a quantitative risk assessment model using rating functions is presented to identify inspection priority among multiple fatigue-sensitive details. Bayesian techniques are adopted for reliability and risk updating of bothinspected and uninspected fatigue-sensitive details at component and system levels. Additionally, correlation of fatigue damage among different critical details is considered and incorporated within risk assessment and updating.A number of analyses are performed to investigate the fatigueriskranking assessment and updating. Applications are presented on anexisting tanker with multiple fatigue-sensitive details.

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Effect of different inspection strategies on the reliability of Daniels systems subjected to fatigue

Cited by 4 publications

References 13 publications

Utilization of Digital Twins and Other Numerical Relatives for Efficient Monte Carlo Simulation in Structural Analysis

Utilization of Digital Twins and Other Numerical Relatives for Efficient Monte Carlo Simulation in Structural Analysis

Reliability analysis and updating of deteriorating systems with subset simulation

Incorporation of risk and updating in inspection of fatigue-sensitive details of ship structures

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