Effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and local weather on Aedes vector activity from 2010 to 2018 in Kalutara district, Sri Lanka: a two-stage hierarchical analysis

Liyanage, Prasad; Tozan, Yesim; Overgaard, Hans J.; Tissera, Hasitha; Rocklöv, Joacim

doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00143-7

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Extreme weather or hydroclimatic events, such as heavy rains or droughts are happening more frequently in the world (25). They might have critical influences on the dynamics of the mosquito population depending on the time of their occurrences (26). Incorporating extreme hydroclimatic events (such as drought conditions) together with human mobility patterns helps to forecast Dengue risk and inform public health decisions in vector control for its prevention.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of Human Mobility and Weather Conditions with Dengue Mosquito Abundance during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Hong Kong

Zheng,

Yue,

Wong

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Background While Aedes mosquitoes, the Dengue vectors, were expected to expand their spread due to international travel and climate change, the effects of human mobility and low rainfall conditions on them are largely unknown. We aimed to assess these influences during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong, characterized by varying levels of human mobility. Methods Google′s human mobility indices (including residential, parks and workplaces) and weather conditions (total rainfall and mean temperature) together with Aedes albopictus abundance and extensiveness monitored using Gravidtrap were obtained between April 2020 and August 2022. Distributed lag non-linear models with mixed-effects models were used to explore their influence in three areas in Hong Kong. Findings The relative risk (RR) of mosquito abundance was associated with low rainfall (<50 mm) after 4.5 months, with a maximum of 1.73, compared with 300 mm. Heavy rainfall (>500 mm) within 3 months was also associated with a peak of RR at 1.41. Warm conditions (21-30 ° C; compared with 20 ° C) were associated with a higher RR of 1.47 after half a month. Residential mobility was negatively associated with mosquito abundance. The model projected that if residential mobility in the year 2022 was reduced to the level before the COVID-19 pandemic, the mosquito abundance would increase by an average of 80.49% compared to the actual observation. Significance Both the human mobility and the lag effect of meteorological factors can be critical for the prediction of vector dynamics, and stay-at-home policy may be useful for its control in certain regions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of Human Mobility and Weather Conditions with Dengue Mosquito Abundance during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Hong Kong

Zheng,

Yue,

Wong

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…The Florida Keys (USA) are in a humid tropical climate (Osland et al, 2021), one with conditions favorable for increased mosquito activity and elevated disease transmission likelihood (Liyanange et al, 2022). Ultra-low-volume (ULV) sprays are frequently used for control of flying mosquitoes because the density of droplets in the aerosol cloud (droplets/ mL) produced by ULV sprayers is high enough to ensure that flying mosquitos are exposed to an efficacious dose (Mount, 1970).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Permethrin Contamination of Sawgrass Marshes and Potential Risk for the Imperiled Klot's Skipper Butterfly (Euphyes pilatka klotsi)

Bargar,

Hladik

2023

Enviro Toxic and Chemistry

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Nontarget effects from mosquito control operations are possible in habitats adjacent to areas targeted by ultra‐low volume (ULV) sprays of permethrin for adult mosquito control. This paper assessed the risks of permethrin exposure to butterflies, particularly the imperiled Klot's skipper, when exposed to ground based ULV sprays. Samples of larval host plant leaves (sawgrass) were collected in June (in mosquito season) and January (outside mosquito season) of 2015 from sawgrass marsh habitats of the National Key Deer Wildlife Refuge and analyzed for permethrin. Permethrin detection was higher in June (detected on 70% of samples) than in January (30%) and concentrations were significantly higher in June (geomean = 2.1 ng/g, median = 2.4) relative to January (0.4 ng/g, median = 0.2). Dietary risk for 4th – 5th instar larvae was low based on the measured residues. The AGricultural DISPersal model (v 8.26) was used to estimate permethrin residues on sawgrass following ULV sprays (deposited residues) to estimate immediate post‐spray risk. Estimated deposited residues (33 – 543 ng/g) were much higher than measured residues, which lead to higher risk likelihood for butterfly larvae immediately after ULV sprays. The difference between estimated and measured residues, and between the two risk estimations, reflects uncertainty in risk estimates based on the measured residues. Research on modeling deposited pesticide residues following ground based ULV spray is limited. More research on estimating deposited pesticide residues from truck mounted ULV sprayers could help reduce uncertainty in the risk predictions for nontarget insects like butterflies.

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“…It is, therefore, important to understand the delays from vector development to dengue transmission and the threshold values for vector indices to make evidencebased decisions for effective vector management [16]. In this context, we have previously reported the lagged associations between weather variables and dengue incidence on one hand [15], and weather variables and vector indices on the other hand [21] in Kalutara district in Western province of Sri Lanka. As shown by a systematic review conducted by Bowman et al, there is a knowledge gap in understanding the associations between Aedes larval indices and dengue transmission risk [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the associations between Aedes larval indices and dengue risk in Kalutara district, Sri Lanka: a hierarchical time series analysis from 2010 to 2019

et al. 2022

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Background Dengue is a major public health problem in Sri Lanka. Aedes vector surveillance and monitoring of larval indices are routine, long-established public health practices in the country. However, the association between Aedes larval indices and dengue incidence is poorly understood. It is crucial to evaluate lagged effects and threshold values of Aedes larval indices to set pragmatic targets for sustainable vector control interventions. Methods Monthly Aedes larval indices and dengue cases in all 10 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions in Kalutara district were obtained from 2010 to 2019. Using a novel statistical approach, a distributed lag non-linear model and a two-staged hierarchical meta-analysis, we estimated the overall non-linear and delayed effects of the Premise Index (PI), Breteau Index (BI) and Container Index (CI) on dengue incidence in Kalutara district. A set of MOH division-specific variables were evaluated within the same meta-analytical framework to determine their moderator effects on dengue risk. Using generalized additive models, we assessed the utility of Aedes larval indices in predicting dengue incidence. Results We found that all three larval indices were associated with dengue risk at a lag of 1 to 2 months. The relationship between PI and dengue was homogeneous across MOH divisions, whereas that with BI and CI was heterogeneous. The threshold values of BI, PI and CI associated with dengue risk were 2, 15 and 45, respectively. All three indices showed a low to moderate accuracy in predicting dengue risk in Kalutara district. Conclusions This study showed the potential of vector surveillance information in Kalutara district in developing a threshold-based, location-specific early warning system with a lead time of 2 months. The estimated thresholds are nonetheless time-bound and may not be universally applicable. Whenever longitudinal vector surveillance data areavailable, the methodological framework we propose here can be used to estimate location-specific Aedes larval index thresholds in any other dengue-endemic setting. Graphical Abstract

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Effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and local weather on Aedes vector activity from 2010 to 2018 in Kalutara district, Sri Lanka: a two-stage hierarchical analysis

Cited by 15 publications

References 35 publications

Association of Human Mobility and Weather Conditions with Dengue Mosquito Abundance during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Hong Kong

Association of Human Mobility and Weather Conditions with Dengue Mosquito Abundance during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Hong Kong

Permethrin Contamination of Sawgrass Marshes and Potential Risk for the Imperiled Klot's Skipper Butterfly (Euphyes pilatka klotsi)

Assessing the associations between Aedes larval indices and dengue risk in Kalutara district, Sri Lanka: a hierarchical time series analysis from 2010 to 2019

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