Effect of exchange rate uncertainty on bilateral trade performance in SAARC countries: a gravity model analysis

Abstract

PurposeExchange rate uncertainty leads to an indecisive environment for imports and exports that would condense international trade, foreign direct investment, trade earnings, trade volumes, economic growth and welfare. This study aims to examine, empirically, the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on bilateral trade performance, focusing on eight SAARC member economies using the popular modified gravity model of trade.Design/methodology/approachThe paper includes eight SAARC members – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka panel data set over the period 2005–2018. The authors consider both standardized value (standard deviation) and conditional variance model to determine volatility of exchange rate. Primarily, ordinary least squares, random effects and fixed effects estimation techniques are employed to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility. Endogeneity and robustness of the findings have been tested using the simultaneity-adjusted model and dynamic panel data two-step system GMM estimation techniques.FindingsEmpirical findings endorse the view that exchange rate volatility lowers trade flows in the SAARC regions. However, this adverse effect of exchange rate uncertainty on trade is pretty small. The negative correlation between exchange rate volatility and bilateral trade remains consistent and significant after controlling of simultaneous causality, autocorrelation, year effects, country-pair heterogeneity and endogeneity irrespective of panel data estimation techniques and different measures of volatility.Originality/valueThe present paper is original work.

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“…Secara singkat dapat dijelaskan bahwa jika risiko nilai tukar meningkat, hal tersebut akan membuat volume perdagangan menjadi menurun apabila pedagang cenderung menghindari risiko. Sejalan dengan pernyataan tersebut, penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Banik & Roy (2021) menyatakan bahwa terdapat pengaruh negatif dan signifikan mengenai hubungan volatilitas nilai tukar dengan kinerja perdagangan pada negara-negara di kawasan Asia Selatan yang tergabung dalam kerjasama SAARC. Adanya volatilitas yang ekstrim berimplikasi pada berkurangnya arus perdagangan di antara negara anggota SAARC.…”

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