Effect of Frequency of Multi-Source Water Supply on Regional Guarantee Rate of Water Use

Abstract

Multi-source, combined water supply models play an increasingly important role in solving regional water supply problems. At present, in the area of regional water supply, models are mainly used to study the problem of overall water guarantee rate, and do not take into account the impact of the uncertainty of multi-source water supplies on water supply risk. There is also a lack of research on how changes in multi-source water supplies affect sub-region and sub-user water guarantee rates. To address this knowledge gap, the encounter probability of different frequencies and a refined water resources allocation model of multi-source supplies were used. Using Tianjin as an example, this paper studies the quantitative relationship between the uncertainty of multi-source water inflows and the regional guarantee rate of water use. The objectives of the study are to analyze the changing trend of the water shortage rate and the main body of water supply in each region, and to quantitatively describe the influence of the variation of multi-source water supply on the main body of water supply for users. The results show that under the same requirement of guarantee rate for water use, as the number of water diversion sources increase, the probability of water supply meeting the water use rate increases significantly, and the risk to water supplies decreases. At the same time, suburban areas have a low dependence on external water supplies, while the change in the quantity of external water sources has a great impact on the water supply of the Zhongxinchengqu and Binhaixiqnu areas. The distribution and main body of water supply will change for different water users. Therefore, it is important to ensure a stable supply of external water for maintaining the guarantee rate of regional water use.

A new method for estimating multi-source water supply considering joint probability distributions under uncertainty

“…The development of this area is limited due to the grim water resource situation and the contradiction between water supply and demand. In view of the current situation of water resources in the Xiong'an New Area, a large number of water diversion projects, mainly including the Water Diversion Project from Xidayang Reservoir and Wangkuai Reservoir, the Water Diversion Project from the Yellow River to Baiyangdian Lake and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, have been implemented with joint water supply patterns to alleviate regional water shortage (Zhang et al, 2019;Song et al, 2020;An et al, 2021).…”

“…Due to the boom of population and the acceleration of urbanization progress worldwide, the contradiction between water supply and demand has become increasingly prominent (Song et al, 2020), especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Accordingly, many inter-basin water diversion projects have been constructed as the main means to alleviate water shortage (Yu et al, 2017;Zhang et al, 2019;Song et al, 2020), and examples include but are not limited to the Southto-North Water Diversion Project (Zhang et al, 2021). The required amount of water relocated through the water diversion projects can be calculated with two constraints, i.e., the amount of water demand of receiving regions and economic benefits from water relocation.…”

“…In recent years, water supply systems have rapidly developed from a single water source to multiple water sources due to their obvious advantage of ensuring the reliability of urban water supply (Puleo et al, 2014;Zhang et al, 2019;An et al, 2021). This multi-source water supply faces new challenges in water resource management (Gao et al, 2018;Yu et al, 2017).…”

Urban Multi-Source Water Supply in China: Variation Tendency, Modeling Methods and Challenges

“…Interbasin water transfers incorporated with optimal allocation models had become crucial measures to address urban water shortage problems [28]. With the implementation of three major…”

“…Interbasin water transfers incorporated with optimal allocation models had become crucial measures to address urban water shortage problems [28]. With the implementation of three major water transfer projects (i.e., the Luan River-to-Tianjin Water Diversion Project, the Yellow River-to-Tianjin Emergency Water Diversion Project, the South-to-North Water Transfer Project), the bottleneck that water resources had been was eased effectively [29,30].…”