Effect of future climate change on the water footprint of major crops in southern Tajikistan

Kobuliev, Muhammadjon; Liu, Tie; Kobuliev, Zainalobudin; Chen, Xi; Gulakhmadov, Aminjon; Bao, Anming

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2021.01.004

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…It has been observed that instrumental records do not capture the full range of natural streamflow change in Central Asian tree‐ring studies (Chen et al, 2013; Chen et al, 2022; Panyushkina et al, 2018; Zhang, Ermenbaev, et al, 2020; Zhang, He, et al, 2020; Zhao et al, 2022). The rapidly growing population in Tajikistan is likely to compound the potential volatility of water resources (Baggio et al, 2021; Howard & Howard, 2016; Kobuliev et al, 2021). The impact of climate change on water availability will mostly depend on water resources management in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Streamflow reconstruction in the Kafirnigan River, Tajikistan since 1568 CE reveals a linkage between southern Central Asian hydrological variation and ENSO

Zulfiyor

Opała‐Owczarek

Chen

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Long‐term hydroclimate change can provide reliable reference for water resources management in Central Asia. However, only a few palaeohydrological records exist in Tajikistan. To obtain a long‐term perspective on hydrological changes in Tajikistan, we developed, for the first time, a streamflow reconstruction from September of the previous year to June of the current one in the Kafirnigan River basin, based on Juniperus semiglobosa tree‐ring width indices from the Iskanderkul area in northern Tajikistan. The streamflow reconstruction explains 40% of the actual streamflow variance during the period 1939–1993. Spatial correlation analyses with gridded precipitation data indicate that our streamflow reconstruction contains a strong regional hydroclimatic signal for southern Central Asia. The high and low intervals of our streamflow reconstruction are closely related to the interdecadal variations of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our reconstructed streamflow is significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and northern Indian Ocean, indicate the existence of remarkable 11‐, 5.6–5.7‐, 4.3‐, 2.6‐, 2.3‐ and 2.0‐year cycles, and suggest a relationship between southern Central Asian streamflow variations and ENSO activity.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Streamflow reconstruction in the Kafirnigan River, Tajikistan since 1568 CE reveals a linkage between southern Central Asian hydrological variation and ENSO

Zulfiyor

Opała‐Owczarek

Chen

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The first is predictor’s screening: the most relevant atmospheric parameters were chosen based on p -value, histograms, scatterplots, correlation matrix, and partial correlation with the assistance of the MLR model. A correlation matrix was preferred between predictands and CanESM2 predictors (Kobuliev et al 2021 ). A predictor parameter was positively correlated and has a significant representation in the scatterplot and minimum p -value.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Competency of groundwater recharge of irrigated cotton field subjacent to sowing methods, plastic mulch, water productivity, and yield under climate change

Saeed

Maqbool

Ashraf

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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Irrigated agriculture is a foremost consumer of water resources to fulfill the demand for food and fiber with an increasing population under climate changes; cotton is no exception. Depleting groundwater recharge and water productivity is critical for the sustainable cotton crop yield peculiarly in the semiarid region. This study investigated the water productivity and cotton yield under six different treatments: three sowing methods, i.e., flat, ridge, and bed planting with and without plastic mulch. Cotton bed planting without mulch showed maximum water productivity (0.24 kg.m−3) and the highest cotton yield (1946 kg.ha−1). Plastic mulching may reduce water productivity and cotton yield. HYDRUS-1D unsaturated flow model was used to access the groundwater recharge for 150 days under six treatments after model performance evaluation. Maximum cumulative recharge was observed 71 cm for the flat sowing method without plastic mulch. CanESM2 was used to predict climate scenarios for RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 for the 2050s and 2080s by statistical downscale modeling (SDSM) using historical data from 1975 to 2005 to access future groundwater recharge flux. Average cumulative recharge flux declined 36.53% in 2050 and 22.91% in 2080 compared to 2017 without plastic mulch. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that a maximum 23.78% reduction in groundwater recharge could influence future climate change. Further study may require to understand the remaining influencing factor of depleting groundwater recharge. Findings highlight the significance of climate change and the cotton sowing method while accessing future groundwater resources in irrigated agriculture.

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“…predictors (Kobuliev et al 2021). A predictor parameter, which was positively correlated, has a significant representation in the scatterplot and minimum p-value.…”

Section: Downscaling Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For better agreement with the results, 100 ensembles were used to obtain the average. In literature, some other studies also evaluated the good performance of SDSM compared to other methods; that's why this statistical downscaling approach was used (Kazmi et al 2016;Khan et al 2018;Kobuliev et al 2021). Performance of the model was evaluated by the root mean square error (RMSE), coefficients of correlation (R 2 ), and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and calculated by Eqs.…”

Section: Downscaling Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge in Cotton Irrigated Fields under Agronomical Practices

Saeed¹,

Maqbool²,

Ashraf³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Cotton crop is one of the major water consumers in the Indus basin region. Accurate groundwater recharge estimation is a provoking duty due to hydrologic and environmental applications under climate change in the agricultural sector. An utmost region that is vulnerable to climate change and cotton production is declining, consequently. Here, historical trends (1975–2005) and future variability (2021-50 and 2051-80) of climate parameters were analyzed and predicted by SDSM for three emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) for the semi-arid region Faisalabad, Pakistan. Results revealed a rise in maximum (minimum) temperature and a decline in rainfall, relative humidity, and wind speed for both 2021-50 and 2051-80 using different NCEP parameters (p < 0.05). The groundwater recharge was simulated using the Hydrus-1D unsaturated flow model. Hydrus-1D unsaturated flow model simulated the groundwater recharge under six treatments. A 41 cm reduction of groundwater recharge was observed under all scenarios. The highest recharge was observed 71 cm under RCP 2.6, and the lowest recharge was 30 cm under RCP 8.5, a maximum of 23% groundwater recharge controlled by climate variables with the weak relationship among them. Cotton sowing method T6(bed planting without mulch) showed the highest yield (1,066 kg.ha− 1). It further indicates that rather than climate change, the agronomical practice may have a more significant impact on groundwater recharge and cotton yield. Findings highlight the significance of both climate change and the cotton sowing method while accessing future water resources in irrigated Indus basin agriculture.

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Effect of future climate change on the water footprint of major crops in southern Tajikistan

Cited by 11 publications

References 35 publications

Streamflow reconstruction in the Kafirnigan River, Tajikistan since 1568 CE reveals a linkage between southern Central Asian hydrological variation and ENSO

Streamflow reconstruction in the Kafirnigan River, Tajikistan since 1568 CE reveals a linkage between southern Central Asian hydrological variation and ENSO

Competency of groundwater recharge of irrigated cotton field subjacent to sowing methods, plastic mulch, water productivity, and yield under climate change

Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge in Cotton Irrigated Fields under Agronomical Practices

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