Effect of Indian Ocean–Pacific SST Pattern in Autumn on Winter Wheat Climatic Yield in the North China Plain in the Following Year and a Possible Mechanism

Abstract

Ensuring stable crop yield increases to meet rising demand is an important issue globally, particularly when accounting for climate change. In this study, using observations, reanalysis datasets, and the Hodrick and Prescott filter method, we find that changes in a distinct pattern of Indian Ocean–Pacific five-pole (IPFP) SST (sea surface temperature) are strongly linked to the ensuing year’s winter wheat climatic yield (the part of yield that fluctuation caused by climatic factors change) in the North China Plain (NCP), which is the main production region of winter wheat in China. Here we define a normalized IPFP index (IPFPI) and demonstrate that the autumn IPFPI (1948–2014) is well correlated with the ensuing year’s winter wheat climatic yield (1949–2015), particularly for October (r = 0.69; n = 67; P < 0.001). A composite analysis shows that the October IPFP is correlated with sowing-period and emergence-period climate factors in the NCP. When the October IPFP is in a positive phase, the atmosphere geopotential height fields and water vapor flux are bebefitial to rainfall formation in NCP, and the precipitation and soil moisture are higher in NCP and benefit winter wheat growth, thus increasing the climatic yield. In addition, accumulated rainfall and soil water content might influence winter wheat growth from sowing and emergence (autumn) to the returning green stage (following spring).

Effects of Future Climate Change on Citrus Quality and Yield in China

“…Among many aspects of impacts, agriculture is the most sensitive sector [3,4]. In this changing environment, the production of many crops is affected, which is related to world food security and global stability [5][6][7][8][9][10]. As a result, researchers in agriculture have made it a priority to understand the relationship between crops and climate variables [11][12][13] and to predict crop yield and quality under climate change scenarios [14].…”