Effect of Land Use/Cover Change on the Hydrological Response of a Southern Center Basin of Chile

Martínez-Retureta, Rebeca; Aguayo, Mauricio; Stehr, Alejandra; Sauvage, Sabine; Echeverría, Cristián; Sánchez‐Pérez, José‐Miguel

doi:10.3390/w12010302

Cited by 35 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…In the worst scenario for winter (SC-3), the hydrological model predicts changes of −2.0%, −2.4% and 8.6% on the base flow, interflow and runoff, respectively. The magnitude of projected changes is comparable to a deforestation scenario in the Vergara River Basin (Stehr et al, 2010), but lower than what was reported in south-central Chile, where changes in LCC are relatively more drastic and different (intensive forestry; Aguayo et al, 2016;Barrientos et al, 2020;Martínez-Retureta et al, 2020).…”

Section: Synergistic Hydrological Effects Between Climate and Lccmentioning

confidence: 49%

“…Anthropogenic alterations of the natural streamflow regime by way of LCCs make isolating the impacts of climate change on hydrology a daunting task (Yang et al, 2017;Chanapathi and Thatikonda, 2020). In Chile the hydrological impacts of LCCs have been evaluated mainly in south-central Chile (< 41 • S; Stehr et al, 2010;Aguayo et al, 2016;Martínez-Retureta et al, 2020;Barría et al, 2021;Galleguillos et al, 2021) and not in tributary basins to the coastal system of northwestern Patagonia. Nevertheless, using rivers like Puelo River as sentinels, several studies have reported anomalous events in fjords of northwestern Patagonia (e.g., surface hypoxia events, harmful algal blooms), mainly during severe droughts (Valle-Levinson et al, 2007;León-Muñoz et al, 2013Iriarte et al, 2017;Díaz et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

et al. 2021

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Freshwater inputs strongly influence oceanographic conditions in coastal systems of northwestern Patagonia (41–45°S). Nevertheless, the influence of freshwater on these systems has weakened in recent decades due to a marked decrease in precipitation. Here we evaluate potential influences of climate and land cover trends on the Puelo River (640 m3s–1), the main source of freshwater input of the Reloncaví Fjord (41.5°S). Water quality was analyzed along the Puelo River basin (six sampling points) and at the discharge site in the Reloncaví Fjord (1, 8, and 25 m depth), through six field campaigns carried out under contrasting streamflow scenarios. We also used several indicators of hydrological alteration, and cross-wavelet transform and coherence analyses to evaluate the association between the Puelo River streamflow and precipitation (1950–2019). Lastly, using the WEAP hydrological model, land cover maps (2001–2016) and burned area reconstructions (1985–2019), we simulated future land cover impacts (2030) on the hydrological processes of the Puelo River. Total Nitrogen and total phosphorus, dissolved carbon, and dissolved iron concentrations measured in the river were 3–15 times lower than those in the fjord. Multivariate analyses showed that streamflow drives the carbon composition in the river. High streamflow conditions contribute with humic and colored materials, while low streamflow conditions corresponded to higher arrival of protein-like materials from the basin. The Puelo River streamflow showed significant trends in magnitude (lower streamflow in summer and autumn), duration (minimum annual streamflow), timing (more floods in spring), and frequency (fewer prolonged floods). The land cover change (LCC) analysis indicated that more than 90% of the basin area maintained its land cover, and that the main changes were attributed to recent large wildfires. Considering these land cover trends, the hydrological simulations project a slight increase in the Puelo River streamflow mainly due to a decrease in evapotranspiration. According to previous simulations, these projections present a direction opposite to the trends forced by climate change. The combined effect of reduction in freshwater input to fiords and potential decline in water quality highlights the need for more robust data and robust analysis of the influence of climate and LCC on this river-fjord complex of northwestern Patagonia.

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Section: Synergistic Hydrological Effects Between Climate and Lccmentioning

confidence: 49%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

et al. 2021

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“…Calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis were performed by using the SU-FI-2 algorithm (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2) [35,36] included in SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration, Uncertainty Procedures) [37]. This is a semi-automated reverse modeling procedure that combines and optimizes the modeling parameters for an accurate result [35].…”

Section: Calibration Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central Chile

Martínez-Retureta

Aguayo

Abreu

et al. 2021

Water

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In this study, the SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model is implemented to determine the effect of climate change on various hydrological components in two basins located in the foothills of the Andes: the Quino and Muco river basins. The water cycle is analyzed by comparing the model results to climatic data observed in the past (1982–2016) to understand its trend behaviors. Then, the variations and geographical distribution of the components of the hydrological cycle were analyzed using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 climate scenario to model two periods considering the immediate future (2020–2049) and intermediate future (2050–2079). In this way, in the study area, it is predicted that yearly average temperatures will increase up to 1.7 °C and that annual average precipitation will decrease up to 210 mm for the intermediate future. Obtained results show that the analyzed parameters presented the same trend behavior for both periods of time; however, a greater impact can be expected in the intermediate future. According to the spatial distribution, the impact worsens for all the parameters as the elevation increases in both basins. The model depicted that yearly average evapotranspiration would increase around 5.26% and 5.81% for Quino and Muco basins, respectively, due to the large increase in temperature. This may cause, when combined with the precipitation lessening, a decrease around 9.52% and 9.73% of percolation, 2.38% and 1.76% of surface flow, and 7.44% and 8.14% of groundwater for Quino and Muco basins, respectively, with a consequent decrease of the water yield in 5.25% and 4.98% in the aforementioned watersheds, respectively.

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“…In Chile, ref. [60] used the Hargreaves-Samani method for PET calculation within a land use change model simulation with SWAT in central-southern Chile. Refs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Three Daily Rainfall-Runoff Hydrological Models Using Four Evapotranspiration Models in Four Small Forested Watersheds with Different Land Cover in South-Central Chile

Flores

Rodrı́guez

Yépez

et al. 2021

Water

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We used the lumped rainfall–runoff hydrologic models Génie Rural à 4, 5, 6 paramètres Journalier (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J) to evaluate the most robust model for simulating discharge on four forested small catchments (<40 ha) in south-central Chile. Different evapotranspiration methods were evaluated: Oudin, Hargreaves–Samani and Priestley–Taylor. Oudin’s model allows the achievement of the highest efficiencies in the flow simulation. The more sensitive parameters for each model were identified through a Generalized Probability Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) model. Our results demonstrate that the three hydrological models were capable of efficiently simulating flow in the four study catchments. However, the GR6J model obtained the most satisfactory results in terms of simulated to measured streamflow closeness. In general, the three models tended to underestimate peak flow, as well as underestimate and overestimate flow events in most of the in situ observations, according to the probability of non-exceedance. We also evaluated the models’ performance in a simulation of summer discharge due to the importance of downstream water supply in the months of greatest scarcity. Again, we found that GR6J obtained the most efficient simulations.

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Effect of Land Use/Cover Change on the Hydrological Response of a Southern Center Basin of Chile

Cited by 35 publications

References 73 publications

Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central Chile

Comparison of Three Daily Rainfall-Runoff Hydrological Models Using Four Evapotranspiration Models in Four Small Forested Watersheds with Different Land Cover in South-Central Chile

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