Effect of Market Price Uncertainties on the Design of Optimal Biorefinery Systems—A Systematic Approach

Abstract

This paper presents the development of a computer-aided decision support tool for identifying optimal biorefinery concepts for production of biofuels at an early design stage. To this end, a framework that uses a superstructure-based process synthesis approach integrated with uncertainty analysis is used. We demonstrate the application of the tool for generating optimal biorefinery concepts for a lignocellulosic biorefinery. In particular, we highlight the management of various sources of data, the superstructure (integrated thermochemical and biochemical conversion routes) needed to represent the design space, generic but simple models describing the processing tasks, and the formulation and solution of an MINLP problem under deterministic and stochastic conditions to identify the optimal processing route for multiple raw materials and products. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of market price uncertainties on the optimal solutions and calculate the associated risk to enable informed and risk-aware decisions.

A framework for techno-economic & environmental sustainability analysis by risk assessment for conceptual process evaluation

“…[29] [30]. Additionally, the techno-economic data required for Steps 3A and 4, such as nominal market prices of products and raw material(s); and key assumptions for the economic model, are also collected and presented in Table 2 and 3.…”

Economic risk analysis and critical comparison of optimal biorefinery concepts

“…In earlier studies, the superstructure-based optimization methodology developed in our group 3 has been used to perform techno-economic performance and economic risk analysis under market price uncertainties on lignocellulosic and algae biorefi nery concepts to identify their optimal processing paths. Th ese biorefi nery concepts and their optimal solutions are summarized in Table 1.…”

“…Th is section presents the comparison of MSP for two optimal transportation fuels production concepts: (i) gasoline and diesel production from poplar wood using gasifi cation and Fischer-Tropsch (Concept 2A); 3,8 and, (ii) biodiesel production from microalgae using liquefaction and transesterifi cation (Concept 2B 5,11 ). As shown in Fig.…”

“…6(c)), due to its higher operational fl exibility (multiple products concept, Table 3) to adapt to the market changes of gasoline and diesel demand. 3 Th erefore, good design strategies with respect to pricing, data selection, and market analysis against this type of impact should be an integral part of the biorefi nery concept development since ignoring these uncertainties may result in an economic loss under market price fl uctuations in the future. One of the alternatives to reduce potentially negative economic impacts, is by systematically diversifying the product portfolio and producing multiple products as presented in Table 3, where: (i) the multi-products biorefi neries (gasoline/diesel and DEE/13BD) received minimum impacts from the oil price drop; and (ii) the EBITDA was improved by 16% for simultaneous production of DEE and 1,3-butadiene.…”

“…3 Th e approach has been used to design optimal biorefi neries for: (i) lignocellulosic ethanol production via thermochemical and biochemical conversion from corn stover and poplar wood; 3 (ii) ethanol-derivatives production via catalytic conversion; 4 and, (iii) biodiesel, ethanol, and protein production from microalgae. 5 In this paper, optimal biorefi nery concepts, capable of producing biofuels and biochemicals from diff erent feedstocks (lignocellulosic versus microalgal biomass) and including biochemical versus thermochemical conversion platforms, are critically studied to allow in-depth comparison and economic risk analysis against market price uncertainties.…”