Classification and regression trees (CARTs) for data analysis, an hourly weather dataset, and a 3 year field incidence and severity dataset of winter wheat rust were integrated to forecast pathogens’ presence/absence. The field dataset of incidence and severity was collected for three production cycles. Measured records of 88 Automatic Meteorological Stations and the indirect weather dataset generated in the Weather Research and Forecasting environment interpolated to each Automatic Meteorological Station location were analysed in the Python ecosystem. The focal point of the analysis was the severity of the disease. The analysis of direct weather data revealed the association of leaf rust severity with a night temperature of <14.25°C and global radiation of <521.67 W·m–2, while the estimated dataset showed that its severity is better explained by the dew point temperature of <13.7°C and a mean temperature of <19.06°C. The direct dataset also indicated that stripe rust severity was associated with relative humidity of <88.73%, global radiation of <597.39 W·m–2 and dew point temperature of <16.09°C, whereas the estimated data revealed that pathogen severity is better explained by a model composed of a dew point temperature of <14.6°C, night temperature of <20.4°C and a maximum temperature of <27.9°C. The severity and intensity analysis indicated the pathogen's preference for non‐dry ambient conditions and the preference of stripe rust pathogen for humid and warmer temperatures than leaf rust. The weather thresholds of both pathogens, and CART analysis, unveiled that winter wheat rust can be forecasted. This constitutes the foundation of a more efficient extension programme based on the internet of things.