Effect of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) on health indicators: climate change scenarios in a Brazilian metropolis

Abstract

Recife is recognized as the 16th most vulnerable city to climate change in the world. In addition, the city has levels of air pollutants above the new limits proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2021. In this sense, the present study had two main objectives: (1) To evaluate the health (and economic) benefits related to the reduction in mean annual concentrations of PM 10 and PM 2.5 considering the new limits recommended by the WHO: 15 µg/m 3 (PM 10 ) and 5 µg/m 3 (PM 2.5 ) and (2) To simulate the behavior of these pollutants in scenarios with increased temperature (2 and 4 °C) using machine learning. The averages of PM 2.5 and PM 10 were above the limits recommended by the WHO. The scenario simulating the reduction in these pollutants below the new WHO limits would avoid more than 130 deaths and 84 hospital admissions for respiratory or cardiovascular problems. This represents a gain of 15.2 months in life expectancy and a cost of almost 160 million dollars. Regarding the simulated temperature increase, the most conservative (+ 2 °C) and most drastic (+ 4 °C) scenarios predict an increase of approximately 6.5 and 15%, respectively, in the concentrations of PM 2.5 and PM 10 , with a progressive increase in deaths attributed to air pollution. The study shows that the increase in temperature will have impacts on air particulate matter and health outcomes. Climate change mitigation and pollution control policies must be implemented for meeting new WHO air quality standards which may have health benefits.

PM2.5,PM10 and bronchiolitis severity: A cohort study

“…34 Recent observations suggest that climate change and especially increased temperatures are associated with PM peaks in the atmosphere. 35,36 The results of this study and the current context of global warming point out that increasing efforts should be addressed to raise awareness among parents, healthcare providers and public authorities on the possible role of PM on infant health and to limit its production.…”

Análise ambiental integrada da qualidade do ar, variáveis meteorológicas e comunidade de aves em área urbana subtropical

“…among individuals over 30 years old, 78 deaths in cardiovascular mortality (related to PM2.5 reduction), and 30.9 deaths due to total non-external causes (related to PM10 reduction), as well as reducing 84 hospitalizations for respiratory or cardiovascular problems. These benefits represent a gain of 15.2 months in life expectancy for the population and a gain of almost US$ 160 million for the municipality (Leão et al, 2022).…”

Spatio-temporal visualization and forecasting of $${\text {PM}}_{10}$$ in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais

“…Several studies with air pollution data were developed with this challenge, using statistical models to address both model fit [22][23][24] , and model forecast [25][26][27] of air pollution in Brazil. For example, in Itabira (a city in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais), an increase of 10 µg/m 3 of PM 10 was associated with an increase in respiratory diseases in the emergency room, concluding that an increase in PM 10 levels has a major impact on the exposed population 28 .…”