Ensuring formation stability is vital to realizing the
commercial
development of hydrate reservoirs. Therefore, studying the formation
subsidence in the hydrate mining process is essential. This study
proposes a method for predicting the maximum surface subsidence using
the hydrate dissociation front. Firstly, to more realistically evaluate
the hydrate dissociation characteristics and reservoir deformation
during the hydrate mining process in permafrost, soil permeability
experiments under different hydrate saturations were conducted, and
the dynamic permeability model was established. On this basis, combined
with the multifield coupling model, the depressurization process of
the hydrate reservoir is simulated. The hydrate dissociation property
and stratum subsidence response under different parameters are analyzed.
In addition, the parameter sensitivity is evaluated, and the corresponding
relationship between the hydrate dissociation front and the maximum
surface subsidence is established. According to the research results,
assuming that the safety limit of surface subsidence is set to 0.3
m, the safe hydrate dissociation range within soil permeability K = [20 mD, 120 mD] is about [0 m, 77.7 m]. For every 20%
decrease in wellhead pressure, the hydrate dissociation range increases
by 30%. It is worth noting that the three points A, B, and C (located
at the upper, middle, and lower positions next to the well perforation
end) show completely different deformation trends during the mining
process.