We estimated changes in viticulture conditions over the 21st century in BadenWürttemberg, southwest Germany, using scenario runs of 3 regional climate models for 1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The scenario runs were compared and validated with local observational data. By applying the Huglin Index, possible expansions of areas suitable for viticulture, as well as suitable grape varieties for the region, were determined. Optimal grape varieties are changing to those more suitable to a warmer climate. This development was found in all examined simulation runs.
KEY WORDS: Viticulture · Southwest Germany · Huglin Index · REMO · CLM · WETTREG
Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 47: 161-169, 2011 162 by Stock (2005) using primarily a statistical regional climate model (SRCM) STAR. The scenarios used cover the time period up to 2055, and the main method applied was the Huglin Index (HI, Huglin 1978). The HI is a commonly used heat summation index to identify suitable areas for different grape varieties, and has been applied in studies of Tonietto & Carbonneau (2004) as well as Petgen (2007).In the present study, we examined the possible expansion of suitable areas for different grape varieties, using the HI, for 3 different periods, 1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Simulation runs of 2 dynamical regional climate models (DRCMs) were used, the regional model REMO, developed by the Max-PlanckInstitute for Meteorology (Jacob & Podzun 1997, Jacob et al. 2007, and the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model in climate limited-area Modelling (CLM) mode (COSMO-CLM or CCLM) (Steppeler et al. 2003. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1 were used for the simulation runs (IPCC 2007). Both emission scenarios are based on the assumption of an integrated world with rapid economic growth. B1 includes reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resourceefficient technologies, together with a change to a more service and information orientated economy. A1B comprises the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies together with a balanced use of all energy sources, but is less focused on environmental sustainability than B1. For 2 different climate stations, the model output is validated and compared with simulations of the statistical based regional climate model WETTREG of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (Enke et al. 2006, Spekat et al. 2007). The present study assesses potential changes and examines the possible expansion of those areas suitable for viticulture over a long time scale (up to 2100) according to the 2 DRCMs. In addition, we discuss possible limits of the models used and of the HI.
DATA AND METHODSData from 3 models, 2 dynamical and one statistical, were used to validate the results and were coupled with observation data for verification purposes. To determine values for a particular point, an inverse distance weighted interpolation was applied using the surrounding dynamic...