Effect of social isolation in dengue cases in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: An analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic

Conceição, Gleice Margarete de Souza; Barbosa, Gerson Laurindo; Lorenz, Camila; Bocewicz, Ana Carolina Dias; Santana, Lidia Maria Reis; Marques, Cristiano Correa de Azevedo; Neto, Francisco Chiaravalloti

doi:10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.102149

Cited by 10 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 41 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The percentages of travelers to municipalities of zero, lower and higher incidence than the municipality of residence can be seen in Table 9. The results obtained in this scenario coincide with those obtained by Conceição in his study conducted in Sao Paulo [47] where there was a reduction in dengue cases as a collateral result of population confinement to hinder the advance of COVID-19 pandemic.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 87%

Effect of human mobility in Dengue spreading: Study cases for Caldas (CO)

Ospina

Soriano

Tost

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), dengue is the most common acute arthropod-borne viral infection in the world. The spread of dengue and other infectious diseases is closely related to human activity and mobility. In this paper we analyze the effect on the total number of dengue cases within a population after introducing mobility restrictions as a public health policy. To perform the analysis, we use a complex metapopulation in which we implement a compartmental propagation model coupled with the mobility of individuals between the patches. This model is used to investigate the spread of dengue in the municipalities of Caldas (CO). Two scenarios corresponding to different types of mobility restrictions are applied. In the first scenario, the effect of restricting mobility is analyzed in three different ways: a) limiting the access to the endemic node but allowing the movement of its inhabitants, b) restricting the diaspora of the inhabitants of the endemic node but allowing the access of outsiders, and c) a total isolation of the inhabitants of the endemic node. In this scenario, the best simulation results are obtained when endemic nodes are isolated during a dengue outbreak, obtaining a reduction of up to 22.51% of dengue cases. Finally, the second scenario simulates a total isolation of the network, i.e., mobility between nodes is completely limited. We have found that this control measure reduces the number of total dengue cases in the network by up to 42.67%.

show abstract

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 87%

Effect of human mobility in Dengue spreading: Study cases for Caldas (CO)

Ospina

Soriano

Tost

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Subgroup analysis revealed that the pooled RR in non-endemic areas (RR = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.10–0.21) was lower than that of endemic countries (RR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.39–0.71) ( Figure 2A ). Twenty-nine effect indicator values from six studies (with analytic methods classified as BC) ( Ullrich et al., 2021 ; Liyanage et al., 2021 ; Conceição et al., 2021 ; Xiao et al., 2021 ; Lu et al., 2021 ; Chen et al., 2022 )were pooled to reveal an RR of 0.39 (95% CI: 0.28–0.55) through the effect/CI data setting. The pooled estimate in endemic group was nine times higher than that in non-endemic group, a pooled RR 0.06 (95% CI: 0.02-0.25) and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.44-0.68) respectively, in 2020 ( Figure 2B ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmacological Interventions on Dengue Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Dong

et al. 2022

Front. Cell. Infect. Microbiol.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) implemented during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have demonstrated significant positive effects on other communicable diseases. Nevertheless, the response for dengue fever has been mixed. To illustrate the real implications of NPIs on dengue transmission and to determine the effective measures for preventing and controlling dengue, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the available global data to summarize the effects comprehensively. We searched Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science in line with PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines from December 31, 2019, to March 30, 2022, for studies of NPI efficacy on dengue infection. We obtained the annual reported dengue cases from highly dengue-endemic countries in 2015–2021 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to determine the actual change in dengue cases in 2020 and 2021, respectively. A random-effects estimate of the pooled odds was generated with the Mantel-Haenszel method. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed using the inconsistency index (I2) and subgroup analysis according to country (dengue-endemic or non-endemic) was conducted. This review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021291487). A total of 17 articles covering 32 countries or regions were included in the review. Meta-analysis estimated a pooled relative risk of 0.39 (95% CI: 0.28–0.55), and subgroup revealed 0.06 (95% CI: 0.02-0.25) and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.44-0.68) in dengue non-endemic areas and dengue-endemic countries, respectively, in 2020. The majority of highly dengue-endemic countries in Asia and Americas reported 0–100% reductions in dengue cases in 2020 compared to previous years, while some countries (4/20) reported a dramatic increase, resulting in an overall increase of 11%. In contrast, there was an obvious reduction in dengue cases in 2021 in almost all countries (18/20) studied, with an overall 40% reduction rate. The overall effectiveness of NPIs on dengue varied with region and time due to multiple factors, but most countries reported significant reductions. Travel-related interventions demonstrated great effectiveness for reducing imported cases of dengue fever. Internal movement restrictions of constantly varying intensity and range are more likely to mitigate the entire level of dengue transmission by reducing the spread of dengue fever between regions within a country, which is useful for developing a more comprehensive and sustainable strategy for preventing and controlling dengue fever in the future.

show abstract

“…Brazil overall deviates from this trend, because it experienced more dengue cases than expected [13], leading to a local relative risk ratio of 13.25 in 2020 compared to a pre-pandemic period from 2014 to 2019 [50]. With temporal and geographical exceptions, such as those documented by Conceição et al [15], who found that risk of dengue infection in the Brazilian state of São Paulo decreased by 9 percent twenty days after the start of social isolation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…To better understand the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on dengue activity in Brazil, it is therefore important to study this at sub-national geographic scales. Existing work analyzing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on observed dengue in Brazil has attributed changes in observed dengue activity to changes in human mobility and NPIs alone [13,15,50], without quantitatively assessing the contribution of the other known causal drivers of dengue dynamics, including the altered dengue surveillance capabilities during the pandemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dengue in Brazil

Roster

Martinelli

Connaughton

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Atypical dengue prevalence was observed in 2020 in many dengue-endemic countries, including Brazil. Evidence suggests that the pandemic disrupted not only dengue dynamics due to changes in mobility patterns, but also several aspects of dengue surveillance, such as care seeking behavior, care availability, and monitoring systems. However, we lack a clear understanding of the overall impact on dengue in different parts of the country as well as the role of individual causal drivers. In this study, we estimated the gap between expected and observed dengue cases in 2020 using an interrupted time series design with forecasts from a neural network and a structural Bayesian time series model. We also decomposed the gap into the impacts of climate conditions, pandemic-induced changes in reporting, human susceptibility, and human mobility. We find that there is considerable variation across the country in both overall pandemic impact on dengue and the relative importance of individual drivers. Increased understanding of the causal mechanisms driving the 2020 dengue season helps mitigate some of the data gaps caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and is critical to developing effective public health interventions to control dengue in the future.

show abstract

Effect of social isolation in dengue cases in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: An analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic

Cited by 10 publications

References 41 publications

Effect of human mobility in Dengue spreading: Study cases for Caldas (CO)

Effect of human mobility in Dengue spreading: Study cases for Caldas (CO)

Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmacological Interventions on Dengue Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dengue in Brazil

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About