Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Yang, Bingyi; Huang, Angkana T.; García‐Carreras, Bernardo; Hart, William E.; Staid, Andrea; Hitchings, Matt D T; Lee, Elizabeth C.; Howe, Chanelle J.; Grantz, Kyra H.; Wesolowski, Amy; Lemaitre, Joseph C.; Rattigan, Susan M; Moreno, Carlos; Borgert, Brooke A.; Dale, Celeste; Quigley, Nicole; Cummings, Amanda; McLorg, Alizée; LoMonaco, Kaelene; Schlossberg, Sarah; Barron-Kraus, Drew; Shrock, Harrison; Khoury, Stéphanie; Indra, Meenal; Yau, Hung-Leong; Cummings, Ben; Giannas, Peter; McLean, Martha-Grace; Hubbard, K.A.; Saunders, C.N.; Weldon, Caroline; Phillips, Caroline; Rosenbaum, David; Tabla, Dianelys; Lessler, Justin; Laird, Carl D.; Cummings, Derek A. T.

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-23865-8

Cited by 43 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…In the simulations presented in the main text we used r = 1.3 imagining a scenario where the relaxation of COVID safe behaviors increases the transmission rate of 30%. This choice is informed by the estimated effects of NPIs such as face masks and social distancing on COVID-19 spreading, as reported in the literature [ 4 , 20 , 81 , 82 ]. Nonetheless, in the S1 Text we perform a sensitivity analysis considering also r = 1.1, 1.5.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, they are linked to socio-economic, socio-demographic features, and education attainment [ 18 ]. Arguably, vaccines alone will not be able to contain the spreading of the virus, at least in the short term [ 19 , 20 ]. Social distancing, face masks, hygiene measures, and other NPIs will be still key during the delivery of such vaccination programs, especially considering the emergence of variants of concern as well as the challenges in vaccines procurement and administration in the developing world [ 21 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout

2021

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The promise of efficacious vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 is fulfilled and vaccination campaigns have started worldwide. However, the fight against the pandemic is far from over. Here, we propose an age-structured compartmental model to study the interplay of disease transmission, vaccines rollout, and behavioural dynamics. We investigate, via in-silico simulations, individual and societal behavioural changes, possibly induced by the start of the vaccination campaigns, and manifested as a relaxation in the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions. We explore different vaccination rollout speeds, prioritization strategies, vaccine efficacy, as well as multiple behavioural responses. We apply our model to six countries worldwide (Egypt, Peru, Serbia, Ukraine, Canada, and Italy), selected to sample diverse socio-demographic and socio-economic contexts. To isolate the effects of age-structures and contacts patterns from the particular pandemic history of each location, we first study the model considering the same hypothetical initial epidemic scenario in all countries. We then calibrate the model using real epidemiological and mobility data for the different countries. Our findings suggest that early relaxation of safe behaviours can jeopardize the benefits brought by the vaccine in the short term: a fast vaccine distribution and policies aimed at keeping high compliance of individual safe behaviours are key to mitigate disease resurgence.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout

2021

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“…We use vaccine eligibility data from the COVID-19 U.S. State Policy Database maintained by Boston University (Raifman et al 2020). The data contain detailed information on state-level policies enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic and have been used to evaluate the effect of state-level policies on COVID-19 transmission and physical distancing (Feyman et al 2020;Yang et al 2021;Jay et al 2020). We use the age-based vaccine eligibility dates to determine whether an individual is eligible for a vaccine within a state.…”

Section: Vaccine Eligibility Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution on Mental Health Outcomes

Agrawal¹,

Cantor²,

Sood³

et al. 2021

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“… 2 , 3 , 4 In addition, effective nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as medical masks or physical distancing, cannot be applied for preschool children. Despite differences between influenza viruses and SARS-CoV-2, 5 modeling studies 6 , 7 , 8 have suggested that closure of schools and DCCs might be beneficial in limiting the dissemination of SARS-CoV-2. However, other models 9 , 10 support reopening of childcare facilities, suggesting that they have only a minor impact on viral spreading in the population or disproportionate negative effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Feasibility of SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance Testing Among Children and Childcare Workers at German Day Care Centers

Förster¹,

Streng

Rudolph

et al. 2022

JAMA Netw Open

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IMPORTANCEClosure of day care centers has been implemented globally to contain the COVID-19 pandemic but has negative effects on children's health and psychosocial well-being. OBJECTIVE To investigate the feasibility of surveillance among children and childcare workers and to model the efficacy of surveillance on viral spread prevention. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This nonrandomized controlled trial was conducted at 9 day care centers in Wuerzburg, Germany, from October 2020 to March 2021. Participants included children attending day care, childcare workers, and household members. Participating day care centers were assigned to different surveillance modules in a nonrandomized feasibility study. A mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 spread in day care centers was developed to identify optimal surveillance. INTERVENTIONS Modules 1, 2, and 3 involved continuous surveillance of asymptomatic children and childcare workers by SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction testing of either midturbinate nasal swabs twice weekly (module 1) or once weekly (module 2) or self-sampled saliva samples twice weekly (module 3). Module 4 involved symptom-based, on-demand testing of children, childcare workers, and their household members by oropharyngeal swabs. All participants underwent SARS-CoV-2 antibody status testing before and after the sampling period. Questionnaires on attitudes and perception of the pandemic were administered in weeks 1, 6, and 12. Mathematical modeling was used to estimate SARS-CoV-2 spread in day care centers. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcomes were acceptance of the respective surveillance protocols (feasibility study) and the estimated number of secondary infections (mathematical modeling). RESULTS Of 954 eligible individuals (772 children and 182 childcare workers), 592 (62%), including 442 children (median [IQR] age, 3 [2-4] years; 214 [48.6%] female) and 150 childcare workers (median [IQR] age, 29 [25-44] years; 129 [90.8%] female) participated in the surveillance. In total, 4755 tests for SARS-CoV-2 detected 2 infections (1 childcare worker and 1 adult household member). Acceptance for continuous surveillance was highest for biweekly saliva testing (150 of 221 eligible individuals [67.9%; 95% CI, 61.5%-73.7%]) compared with biweekly (51 of 117 individuals [43.6%; 95% CI, 35.0%-52.6%]) and weekly (44 of 128 individuals [34.4%; 95% CI, 26.7%-43.0%]) midturbinate swabbing (P < .001). Dropout rates were higher for midturbinate swabbing (biweekly, 11 of 62 participants [18%]; once weekly, 11 of 55 participants [20%]) than for saliva testing (6 of 156 (continued) Key Points Question Is continuous SARS-CoV-2 testing accepted by children, parents, and childcare workers and can it prevent viral spreading in day care centers? Findings In this nonrandomized controlled trial, surveillance testing for SARS-CoV-2 among 954 eligible individuals was well accepted by children, parents, and childcare workers if saliva sampling at home was used. Mathematical modeling based on study and literature data iden...

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Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Cited by 43 publications

References 38 publications

The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout

The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout

The Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution on Mental Health Outcomes

Feasibility of SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance Testing Among Children and Childcare Workers at German Day Care Centers

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