Effect of study area extent on the potential distribution of Species: A case study with models for Raoiella indica Hirst (Acari: Tenuipalpidae)

Amaro, George; Fidelis, Elisangela Gomes; Silva, Ricardo Siqueira da; Marchioro, César Augusto

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110454

Cited by 13 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…In terms of ecological niche model selection, the paper combines current climate conditions with different greenhouse gas concentration pathways under climate conditions in two future periods (2050s and 2070s) through MaxEnt, in order to predict future distribution of Ginkgo biloba, which is widely used to predict species suitable area, but this does not mean that the predicted distribution of Ginkgo biloba is exactly the same as the actual distribution [27]. The MaxEnt model is uncertain in its simulations of species distributions, many studies have optimized the MaxEnt model by setting the feature classes and regularization multiplier used in the model training process [63,64]. The size of spatial resolution, the choice of environment variables, and the background range of variable data also affect the results of the model [51,65]; these aspects should be researched more in the future to optimize the model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ginkgo biloba L. in China: Current Distribution and Possible Future Habitat

Zhang,

Tian

et al. 2023

Forests

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With the increase in global temperature, the global change situation dominated by climate warming is becoming more and more serious. Climate change will cause differences in the suitable areas of species in different periods. Ginkgo biloba L., a rare and endangered wild plant protected at the national level in China, is the oldest relict plant in the world. Because of severe climate change, only China’s wild Ginkgo biloba has been preserved, yet China’s wild Ginkgo biloba population is facing extinction risk. Ginkgo biloba has rich ornamental value, application value, economic value, medicinal value and ecological value. Not only can it produce economic and ecological benefits, but it can also produce huge social benefits. Based on the data of Ginkgo biloba sample distribution, bioclimatic variables and soil variables, this paper uses the MaxEnt model to simulate Ginkgo biloba suitable area under current and future different climate scenarios, and analyzes the changes in the potential suitable area of Ginkgo biloba in the future through ArcGIS 10.6. The results are as follows: (1) the results simulated by the MaxEnt model are AUC > 0.9, showing that the simulation results have a high accuracy; (2) the min temperature of the coldest month, precipitation of the wettest month, elevation, and temperature seasonality are the main environmental variables affecting the change in the Ginkgo biloba suitable area; (3) under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of Ginkgo biloba is predicted to expand in the future, covering most of the south and some northeast regions, and moderate temperature and precipitation changes under climate change are conducive for the growth of Ginkgo biloba; and (4) in the future, the distribution center of the suitable area will move to the northeast. According to the conclusions in this paper, it is expected to provide theoretical reference for cultivation and management, sustainable utilization and solution of ecological environment problems of Ginkgo biloba.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ginkgo biloba L. in China: Current Distribution and Possible Future Habitat

Zhang,

Tian

et al. 2023

Forests

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“…We estimated a realistic calibration region ( M , the set of sites accessible to a species; Figure 1b) using a simulation approach, considering processes of dispersal, colonization, and extinction in the constant current climate and glacial–interglacial climate change frameworks, implemented within the Grinnell package in R (Amaro et al., 2023; Barve et al., 2011; Machado‐Stredel et al., 2021). We kept the default values for this analysis, except kernel spread, which we varied between 0.1 and 5; the simulation period was set up at 65.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal species endemic to Iran in southwestern Asia

Noedoost,

Behroozian,

Karami

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change is considered to rank among the most important global issues affecting species' geographic distributions and biodiversity. Understanding effects of climate change on species can enhance conservation efficacy. In this study, we applied ecological niche modeling (ENM) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches to predict the potential geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal plant species to Iran in southwestern Asia, under current and future climate scenarios. We evaluated potential distributional areas of the species, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) for the period 2041–2060. Most current potential suitable areas were identified for A. eriophora in montane regions. Our results anticipated that the potential distribution of A. eriophora will expand geographically toward higher elevations and northward. However, the species is expected to experience relatively high losses of suitability in its actual habitats under future climate scenarios. Consequently, we recommend regional‐to‐national conservation action plans for A. eriophora in its natural habitats.

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“…Previous studies have indicated that the background range of environmental variables used for developing the MaxEnt model can affect the model accuracy and suggested that the model's construction with smaller study areas would result in model overfitting and increase the false‐negative predictions (Amaro et al., 2023 ). Therefore, this study chose the China range as the study area of environmental variables for model building.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of potential distributions of Morina kokonorica and Morina chinensis in China

Yuan,

Zhang,

Yao

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Changes in the habitats of species can provide insights into the impact of climate change on their habitats. Species in the genus Morina (Morinoideae) are perennial herbaceous plants that are mainly distributed in the South Asian Mountains and Eastern Mediterranean. In China, there are four species and two varieties of this genus distributed across the Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai, and Gansu provinces. This study used the optimal MaxEnt model to simulate past, current, and future potentially suitable habitats of Morina kokonorica and Morina chinensis. Seventy data of M. kokonorica occurrences and 3 of M. chinensis were used in the model to predict potentially suitable habitats. The model prediction results indicated that both M. kokonorica and M. chinensis exhibited trends of northward migration to higher latitudes and westward migration along the Himalayas to higher elevations, suggesting that the northern valleys of Hengduan Mountains and northern and eastern parts of the Himalayas were potential refugia for M. kokonorica, and the potential refugia for M. chinensis was located in the eastern part of Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. The results of this niche analysis showed that the two species had higher levels of interspecific competition and that the environmental adaptability of M. chinensis was stronger. This research could help further understand the response pattern of Morina to environmental change, to understand the adaptability of species to the environment, and promote the protection of species.

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Effect of study area extent on the potential distribution of Species: A case study with models for Raoiella indica Hirst (Acari: Tenuipalpidae)

Cited by 13 publications

References 78 publications

The Ginkgo biloba L. in China: Current Distribution and Possible Future Habitat

The Ginkgo biloba L. in China: Current Distribution and Possible Future Habitat

Potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal species endemic to Iran in southwestern Asia

Prediction of potential distributions of Morina kokonorica and Morina chinensis in China

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