Effect of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall on dengue fever and leptospirosis infections in Manila, the Philippines

Sumi, Ayako; Telan, Elizabeth Freda O.; Chagan-Yasutan, Haorile; Piolo, M. B.; Hattori, Toshio; Kobayashi, Nobumichi

doi:10.1017/s095026881600203x

Cited by 69 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The association between temperature seasonality and leptospirosis incidence is most influential in two significant regions namely the Central and South West region. The link between temperature and distribution of leptospirosis incidencedemonstrated in the present study is supported by the previous investigation in countries like Thailand [34], Reunion Island [38], Philippines [39], and China [40]. Climate condition is a network of multiple climatic processes, and different combinations of climate factors may generate different climate effects which in turn influences the survival of leptospires.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Spatial Variation in the Relationship between Leptospirosis Incidence and Climate Determinants in Sarawak (Malaysia)

Kira

Bilung²,

Ngui

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Background Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease caused by spirochete bacteria in the genus Leptospira, and it has become a significant public health challenge in Malaysia. Environmental survival and persistence of this pathogen are highly dependent on environmental conditions such as moisture content, pH and temperature. These conditions are further adapted by the natural climate system including precipitation and humidity which is highly heterogeneous at a geographical scale. This paper described the spatial and temporal distribution of leptospirosis incidence with climate factors using Geographical Information System and stratified the climate factors based on their association with the disease incidence rate. Methods Leptospirosis surveillance data from 2012-2016 were integrated into this study along with seven geo-spatial climate variables for the state of Sarawak, Malaysia. High and low clustering of incidence rate was explored by Getis Ord Gi* statistics. Geographical Weighted Regression model was utilized to study the relationship between the incidence rate and selected climate variables. Results Spatial analysis revealed seven districts in the state of Sarawak as hot spot areas, and six cold spot areas with GiZ score varies between (-3.092 to 3.203). The cumulative incidence rate demonstrated an increasing trend towards the South-East region of Sarawak with an average of 162 cases per 100,000 population. The univariate analysis reported a significant relationship (p<0.05) between leptospirosis incidence rate and temperature seasonality with the lowest AIC value of 31741.4. The results showed that temperature seasonality explained 99% (R2: 0.99) of the spatial variances in incidence rate with 42.31% of the localities showing a significant positive relationship. Conclusion The present study highlighted the importance of temperature seasonality as a potential determinant for the spatial distribution of leptospirosis cases with different strength and direction of the association. In conclusion, this suggests that specific interventions at a locality with strong climate determinants should be implemented to combat the burden of leptospirosis.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Spatial Variation in the Relationship between Leptospirosis Incidence and Climate Determinants in Sarawak (Malaysia)

Kira

Bilung²,

Ngui

et al. 2019

Preprint

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“…The seasonal pattern of DF in both Sumatra Island and Kalimantan was found to be closely related to patterns of minimum temperature [37][38][39] and relative humidity [39][40][41][42][43]. The highest peak of DF incidence in January 2016 might be related to an El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event.…”

Section: Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest cover and climate as potential drivers for dengue fever in Sumatra and Kalimantan 2006–2016: a spatiotemporal analysis

Husnina

Clements

Wangdi

2019

Tropical Med Int Health

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Objectives To describe and quantify spatiotemporal trends of dengue fever at district level in Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia in relation to forest cover and climatic factors. Methods A spatial ecological study design was used to analyse monthly surveillance data of notified dengue fever cases from January 2006 to December 2016 in the 154 districts of Sumatra and 56 districts of Kalimantan. A multivariate, zero‐inflated Poisson regression model was developed with a conditional autoregressive prior structure with posterior parameters estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with Gibbs sampling. Results There were 230 745 cases in Sumatra and 132 186 cases in Kalimantan during the study period. In Sumatra, the risk of dengue fever decreased by 9% (95% credible interval [CrI] 8.5–9.5%) for a 1% increase in forest cover and by 12.2% (95% CrI 11.9–12.6%) for a 1% increase in relative humidity. In Kalimantan, dengue fever risk fell by 17.6% (95% CrI 17.1–18.1%) for a 1% increase in relative humidity and rose by 7.6% (95% CrI 6.9–8.4%) for a 1 °C increase in minimum temperature. There was no significant residual spatial clustering in Sumatra after accounting for climate and demographic variables. In Kalimantan, high residual risk areas were primarily centred in North and East of the island. Conclusions Dengue fever in Sumatra and Kalimantan was highly seasonal and associated with climate factors and deforestation. Incorporation of climate indicators into risk‐based surveillance might be warranted for dengue fever in Indonesia.

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“…Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a public health problem of the world, especially in developing countries (Perwitasari & Ariati, 2015;Setiawan, Supardi, & Bani, 2017) and the one of the infectious diseases on deathly effect (Mangguang & Sari, 2017;Sihombing, Nugraheni, & Sudarsono, 2018). DHF is an infectious disease caused by four serotypes of Dengue virus (DEN 1,2,3,4) transmitted through the bite of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes (Sihombing et al, 2018;Tosepu, 2017), an endemic in tropics and subtropics in various parts of the world especially in the rainy season (Handoyo, Hestinigsih, & Martini, 2017;Johansson, Dominici, & Glass, 2009;Sumi et al, 2017). Recently, WHO estimates that there were 50 to 100 million people dengue infection with an average 2.5% number of deaths each year and estimated more than 70% of The Southeast Asian and Western Pacific regions were the most seriously area affected by DHF (WHO, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Climate Factors for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Banjarmasin City, South Kalimantan Province, Indonesia, 2012-2016

Ishak

Kasman

2018

PHI

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Background: One of the factors that lead to high incidence of DHF is climate change.Objective: To analyze the effect of climate factors (temperature, humidity, wind speed, and rainfall) associated with DHF incidence in Banjarmasin City, 2012-2016. Methods: We used the national data on annual reported incidence from Health Office of Banjarmasin City and climate variations from Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Agency 2nd Class Climatology Station Syamsudin Noor Banjarmasin, January 2012-December 2016. The analysis techniques using path analysis to explained the mechanism of causal relationships between variables.Results: The result showed the overall incidence of DHF in Banjarmasin City during 2012- 2016 was 243 cases, of DHF cases were fluctuates by the monthly trend, where the highest number of DHF cases in January to March, climate variation which occurred in Banjarmasin City period 2012-2016 included temperatures ranged from 25.8-28.7°C, humidity ranged from 65-88%, wind speed ranged from 4-6 knots and rainfall ranged from 0.0-546.7 mm, and the path analysis showed that rainfall variable (X4) was the only variable which positively effected to DHF incidence variable (Y) equal to 0.613 unit (Y = 0.613 X4) (p value = 0.002).Conclusion: Climate information can used as a precautionary signal through early warming of the readiness in facing the outbreaks of vector borne diseases so that further efforts in environmental management by manipulation method and environmental modification.

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Effect of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall on dengue fever and leptospirosis infections in Manila, the Philippines

Cited by 69 publications

References 29 publications

Spatial Variation in the Relationship between Leptospirosis Incidence and Climate Determinants in Sarawak (Malaysia)

Spatial Variation in the Relationship between Leptospirosis Incidence and Climate Determinants in Sarawak (Malaysia)

Forest cover and climate as potential drivers for dengue fever in Sumatra and Kalimantan 2006–2016: a spatiotemporal analysis

The Effect of Climate Factors for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Banjarmasin City, South Kalimantan Province, Indonesia, 2012-2016

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