2023
DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms11040860
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Effect of Transmission and Vaccination on Time to Dominance of Emerging Viral Strains: A Simulation-Based Study

Abstract: We studied the effect of transmissibility and vaccination on the time required for an emerging strain of an existing virus to dominate in the infected population using a simulation-based experiment. The emergent strain is assumed to be completely resistant to the available vaccine. A stochastic version of a modified SIR model for emerging viral strains was developed to simulate surveillance data for infections. The proportion of emergent viral strain infections among the infected was modeled using a logistic c… Show more

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